Gas and Gold


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Gas and Gold

By: Charleston Voice

-- Posted Wednesday, 15 March 2006 | Digg This Article Digg It!

Pulling the trigger when set for semi-auto gives the shooter a three-round burst. A flip to full auto sets the sear mechanism in the receiver to unrelenting rapid fire. Today we fired at selected gas and gold stocks in semi-auto mode.

We do not have full technical analysis justification to do so. Gold, silver, HUI, and the XNG still do not indicate a full "Go" in their respective Weekly indicators such as the MACD or the Slow Stochastics as defined numerous times previously which are lodged in the archives of this site. However, there are selected stocks within these groups which do exhibit cyclical correction completion. It was those in which we took positions.

The natural gas index (XNG) and Gold Index (HUI) Ratio is tracked in the top portion of our featured chart and represented by a dashed red line with a smooth 30-dma blue line. The XNG displayed in green, is overlayed with it. From early February to now the ratio has favored gas over gold. While both stock groups declined, gold stocks went down more. We think now that the red-dashed red ratio line will soon re-cross below the 30-dma an indication that gold stocks will outperform gas as they have consistently done since last September.

Now, understand here, we are not addressing the underlying commodities themselves as natgas has proven to be too volatile. We think, although not yet proven, that the XNG bottomed last week. The HUI is less clear as many of the juniors are still appreciating. We think that will be resolved when the Canadian Venture Index (CDNX) goes down to complete their pullbacks - or appreciates at a lesser rate - than the HUI as illustrated on the bottom segment of the chart.

Actually, I view this bottom ratio plot of the CDNX and HUI as the most intriguing. It could very well be giving us the clue as to when to transition from the major & mid-tier golds into the junior producers and explorers - the most spectacular performers of all!

- - CV

-- Posted Wednesday, 15 March 2006 | Digg This Article

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