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VIX, the US$, Gold & the S&P

By: Charleston Voice


-- Posted Wednesday, 1 November 2006 | Digg This ArticleDigg It!

This is a chart of the "VIX". The VIX is a "volatility index as such when the VIX is at a high it indicates bearishness, an extreme high signaling a potential BUY in a depressed stock market. Investors have extreme fear at this level. Such as when it spiked to 23.81 in mid-July. That would have been an opportunity to buy into the SPX which is shown as a green dashed line.

The opposite is, of course, when the VIX is at the other extreme which it is now - - signaling a complacent or bullish emotion. Pretty near everyone that's going to buy into stocks has done so at this point.

We have seen the VIX test its previous support of 10.74 and it held, so now we go back up to test overhead resistance of 19.58, set back in July.

That dashed green line is the S&P 500 (SPX), so when investors' anxiety level moves from complacency to fear not only will the VIX start heading up, but the stock market will reverse down and cancel out this bear market rally.

The weekly MACD orange bars have now turned up & the SlowSTO dark line has crossed over its slower moving brown line.

I've set up another chart with the US$ and the correlation with Gold and the Dow Jones Ind.

You can clearly see cyclical peak for the US$ was 87.30 and has eroded since then. Just at that peak in early October Gold began its turn-up right around $576. Both the MACD & SlowSTO are giving us vibes that the US$ has now resumed its bear market decline.

You can see on another chart where the SPX has now peaked and the MACD bars and SlowSTO have now turned down:

For those of you still holding on for a renewed bull run in real estate, gander at this Housing Index chart & weep:

 - - CV


-- Posted Wednesday, 1 November 2006 | Digg This Article


This article is brought to you by the Charleston Voice E-mail List. To subscribe FREE to the distribution list, send an e-mail to: Barnacle@chasvoice.biz with 'SUBSCRIBE' in the subject line.



 



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