-- Posted Monday, 10 July 2006 | Digg This Article
I really am sick of listening to the irrational arguments of Bob Geldof, now in conjunction with Tony Blair and Bill Gates, stating that the developed nations should foot the bill for the poverty of the under-developed nations. In the same vein the new tax on air travelers by France to pay for drugs for developed countries is an altruistic but lopsided action. If you fly via Charles De Gaulle airport on an international flight you will be 'donating' about R400 per ticket to drugs for AIDS nations.
Nine of the ten countries with the highest birthrates are in Africa (Afghanistan is the tenth). They produce at least 6.5 children per female. It is this out of control human production line coupled with the copulating male's total disregard for parental responsibility that is the cause of poverty and AIDS. Africa is fornicating itself into oblivion.
The Geldof attitude and French tax may appear on the surface to be laudable actions but in reality they are merely a license for the male population of these countries to screw themselves silly, spawn more children, spread AIDS and expect others to pay for their progenies and problems, all in the name of tribal tradition. Before taxing and forcing the developed world to pay for the irresponsible actions of others the governments of these poverty and AIDS stricken countries should be obliged to address their own problems.
When did you last hear any global leader, politician or public figure address the birth rate as a problem? They ostrich like bury their heads in the sands of silence as the issue is far too hot to discuss in public.
By all means donate funds for condoms, education and powerful publicity on birth control. But before blanket donations are made to oligarchic regimes they should be forced to address their own birth rate problem. The Chinese took Draconian measures and look what they have achieved.
Poverty is a simple mathematical equation; the rate of growth of mouths (dm) is far greater than the rate of supply of food (df). The mouths are multiplying exponentially and the food supply diminishing so that dm>>df. This is a mathematical cycle of death. The multiplying mouths are also the cause of the AIDS pandemic, not poverty as Mr. Mbeki would have us believe. Only when dm=df will poverty and AIDS become controllable. As it is virtually impossible to supply enough food to sustain the exponential rate of birth it stands to reason that the only factor in this equation that must be altered is dm, the rate of increase of the number of mouths.
It is about time that politicians and do-gooder public figures took a stand on birth control and stopped pandering to the authoritarian regimes in Africa that line their own pockets with the spoils of their nations. Just where do these self styled philanthropists, using other peoples money, think all these 'donations' and drugs will end up?
I am venting my spleen on this subject because I am totally fed up with the failure by all these public nebishes with more wishbone than backbone to confront the real problem, that of birth rate. Until this matter is seriously addressed as a leading contributor to poverty and AIDS I will certainly not be using Charles De Gaulle airport.
Meanwhile the gold market marches on. We are into the wave III of the long term bull run and traditionally this is the longest and strongest of the market as it is where the fundamentals start to agree with the bullish technicals that have been in force for so long. Did you notice that when the gold price dived down to $550 all the sudden fair weather bulls were suddenly silenced. Once the gold price moves back above $650 expect to see a return to massive bullish predictions.
Palladium is a classic example of the effect of the RSI ranges in bull and bear markets. In the bull run from 197 the RSI was constantly pushing above the 70 overbought level whilst the corrections failed to move under the 30 oversold level. The opposite occurs in a bear market where the RSI continuously dips under the 30 oversold level and fails to push back above the 70 overbought level. Currently the RSI is trading above 70 and failing to dip under 30 on the corrections. This is a signal of a long term bull trend.
The $ Gold price has the same data. Its RSI is constantly trading above the 70 overbought level and failing to penetrate under the 30 level. This is even more pronounced as the recent sudden $180 collapse in the gold price again failed to push the RSI into oversold territory. This is a signal of a major bull trend. Also note that the RSI has mirrored the new highs of the price indicating a stable bull trend.
The Rand gold price has also formed a series of RSI ranges commensurate with the bull and bear market types. Currently the data is exhibiting strong bullish trending.
Once again note that the RSI is moving to new highs with the price thus indicating a stable bull market.
Silver has the same bullish range indications on its RSI. Even the recent collapse in the price failed to force the RSI into the oversold levels. This is a powerful bull trend.
The reverse divergence scenario on the daily chart allows counts to be made. The difference between the two lows gives $32 on the gold price. This is added to the recent peak for a short term target of $757. Thus I continue to look for my target of $750 to be met.
BUT this time the shares will lead bullion … not lag as in the last upside bullion charge to $725.
The long term weekly chart for Silver has a difference between the lows of $2.98 to be added to the recent peak of $14.94 for a target of $17.92.
This is a huge bull market in precious metals that has resumed and is likely to gather momentum going forward to take out the recent highs.
The JSE Gold index is shown with the flag pattern that I so often detailed. That was the I - II correction. The top of I was signalled by a classic divergence and the bottom of II by another classic divergence. But note the range of the RSI during the correction and its constant attacks on the 30 level and total failure to break above 70. The converse is true of the current situation where the RSI is above 70 and failed to break under 30 during the recent correction. This is a stable powerful long term bull market.
This is my long term data for the JSE Gold index. We have completed the I-II correction and have commenced wave III. This wave III MUST go well above the top of wave I, as I have repeatedly detailed. The recent correction was the 1-2 in a five wave movement that are the sub waves of wave III. Wave III is not likely to be completed for some time and will take the share to much higher levels than current prices. This is a buy on the dips and hold market. It is a long term bull market. And do not forget that even with the large corrective wave IV there will still be a massive bull wave V to come.
The JSE Gold index is shown with its relative strength against the JSE Overall index in grey. For the past 8 years this relative strength has been forming a massive base pattern. This grey chart is ready for lift off. This implies that the gold index will outperform the overall market for some considerable period of time to come. This is not likely to be just a short term show of strength but a protracted trend of superior performance. Gold shares are a necessary inclusion for all portfolios.
-- Posted Monday, 10 July 2006 | Digg This Article
