Why get excited about a bunch of lethargic traders who don’t even have the energy to short Google? Because at the extremes, the crowd is usually wrong. Historically, when volatility indicators go way down—that is, when investors are most sure that the immediate future will be nothing special—it means get ready for some action.

The last time vol plumbed these depths was in 1994, just before the start of one of history’s great bull markets. So now the question is, up or down. Will the next big out-of-the-blue move be another up leg in the post-1982 super-cycle bull market, or the start of a 1970s-style bear? Most visitors to this site will probably opt for choice number two. For anyone on the fence, a quick look at the threats now facing the U.S. economy should help clarify things: 

• The continued growth of China and India could send oil above $80.
• The terrorists now targeting the world’s major oil installations could get one, sending oil above $100.
• The trade imbalance between the U.S. and the rest of the world could send the dollar through the floor.
• The U.S. housing bubble might finally burst, causing consumers to stop spending.
• The Middle East could explode, in one of several plausible ways.
• Bird flu might disrupt international air traffic and keep shoppers out of malls.
• Or, my personal favorite, gold might blow through $800 and force the world’s central banks to get serious about defending their currencies. Higher interest rates will then send the global leveraged speculating community into freefall.

Each of these risks, by itself, is probably at best a 50-50 bet in the year ahead. But the odds of at least one of them happening are pretty good, and any would send the overleveraged U.S. economy off a cliff. So enjoy the peace and quiet while it lasts. More interesting times are coming.