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Gold Edges Higher as Tensions in Gulf Rise



-- Posted Monday, 5 May 2008 | Digg This ArticleDigg It! | Source: GoldSeek.com

The Morning Gold Report by Peter A. Grant

May 05, a.m. (USAGOLD) -- Gold is edging higher within its recent range, underpinned by heightened supply concerns for oil and escalating geopolitical tensions in the Persian Gulf.

Oil has recovered well over 61.8% of the recent corrective pullback, suggesting that the dominant uptrend is re-exerting itself. Brent spot crude has probed back above the 115.00 level, bringing oil back within $2 of last week's record high.

New attacks by militants over the weekend against Royal Dutch Shell facilities in Nigeria have further curtailed exports from Africa's largest producer. An oil tanker off the coast was apparently attacked as well and two people were taken hostage.

Iran has rejected the latest round of incentives aimed at getting the country to halt its uranium enrichment program. Iran maintains that their nuclear program is solely for energy generation, while the west claims they are seeking nuclear weapons.

Tensions between the US and Iran have been ratcheting higher in recent months due to mounting evidence that Iran is meddling in Iraq. Washington has accused Teheran of funding, arming and training Shi'ite militiamen that have participated in attacks against US troops.

The US and Iran have engaged in talks over the past year, geared at reducing the violence in Iraq, but the latest round has been shelved.

"Concerning this situation, talks with America will have no results and will be meaningless," said Foreign Ministry spokesman Mohammad Ali Hosseini.

There were briefly two US carrier groups in the Gulf last week as the USS Abraham Lincoln replaced the USS Harry Truman. Defense Secretary Robert Gates said the deployment of the second carrier should be seen as a "reminder" of US military power in the region.

It has also been reported that the Pentagon has ordered new plans for an attack on Iran as the State Department prepares a new ultimatum for the Islamic Republic; essentially stating 'butt out of Iraq, or else.'

Meanwhile, Turkey ramped up its offensive against PKK separatists seeking refuge in Northern Iraq late last week. Turkey bombed militant positions, increasing concerns about supply disruptions in the region.

US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice is also in the Middle East seeking to jump-start Israeli/Palestinian peace talks. Persistent rocket attacks against Israel by Palestinian militants have hindered the peace process. Israeli settlements in the West Bank have been "particularly problematic" as well.

Gold provides a particularly effective hedge against energy inflation and simultaneously serves as protection against rising geopolitical tensions. Higher oil prices should have a supportive effect on gold. A rebound in the yellow metal above 872.25/877.65 would ease short-term pressure on the downside somewhat, encouraging a move back toward $900.

Gold Market Movers:

US ISM non-manufacturing index for Apr rose to 52.0, above market expectations, versus 49.6 in Mar.

Fed Chairman Bernanke speaks on mortgage foreclosures in New York at 20:30 EDT.

Markets closed in UK for Early May Bank holiday.

Markets closed in Japan for Greenery Day.

Gold rises on increased physical demand, high oil, dollar retreat

Gold will keep its lustre amid uncertainty, says precious metals specialist

Opinions expressed in commentary on the USAGOLD.com website do not constitute an offer to buy or sell, or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product, nor should they be viewed in any way as investment advice or advice to buy, sell or hold. Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. recommends the purchase of physical precious metals for asset preservation purposes, not speculation. Utilization of these opinions for speculative purposes is neither suggested nor advised. Commentary is strictly for educational purposes, and as such USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals does not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information found here.

Pete Grant is the Senior Metals Analyst and an Account Executive with USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals. He has spent the majority of his career as a global markets analyst. He began trading IMM currency futures at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange in the mid-1980's. In 1988 Mr. Grant joined MMS International as a foreign exchange market analyst. MMS was acquired by Standard & Poor's a short time later. Pete spent twelve years with S&P - MMS, where he became the Senior Managing FX Strategist. As a manager of the award-winning Currency Market Insight product, he was responsible for the daily real-time forecasting of the world's major and emerging currency pairs, along with the precious metals, to a global institutional audience. Pete was consistently recognized for providing invaluable services to his clients in the areas of custom trading strategies and risk assessment. The financial press frequently reported his personal market insights, risk evaluations and forecasts. Prior to joining USAGOLD, Mr. Grant served as VP of Operations and Chief Metals Trader for a Denver based investment management firm.


-- Posted Monday, 5 May 2008 | Digg This Article | Source: GoldSeek.com




 



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