-- Posted Wednesday, 20 August 2008 | Digg This Article
| Source: GoldSeek.com
The Morning Gold Report by Peter A. Grant
Aug 20, a.m. (USAGOLD) -- The last time I was in China, in 2006, the economy was positively booming in the run up to the Olympics. There was a sense of prosperity and potential that was palpable. However, one never can quite get a grasp on this country. Just when you think you have a reasonably true sense of China, you turn a corner and are forced to re-jigger everything in your head once again. A couple of things have left a lasting impression:
Everywhere you go there are a lot of people. I mean a lot of people. That should not have come as any surprise. I was certainly well aware that the population of this country was approximately 1.3 billion, but for a guy from Denver it's still a little hard to wrap your head around the realities of that number.
We went to a store in Zhengzhou that was the Chinese equivalent of Walmart (right down to the pilfered smiley-face logo). There was literally an employee stationed in every aisle of the store -- and there were a lot of aisles.
I was struck by the traffic (thankfully not literally); the intricate dance of bicycles, scooters, motorcycles, buses, trucks, cars and pedestrians. Despite limited, nonexistent, or simply ignored traffic control, everything flowed smoothly. However, crossing the street in China can be quite an adventure and is definitely not for the feint at heart. The key is never to hesitate, drivers don't expect pedestrians to hesitate or stop, best to keep moving and trust that the cars will miss you.
I noticed the very expensive cars. The nouveau riche of China like European luxury sedans and you cant go more than a couple blocks in a city without seeing a dealership.
Many of the new buildings being constructed had scaffolding made of bamboo. Someone told me that the craftsmen that build the scaffolding were some of the highest paid workers on the job site.
There is no OSHA, DOT or public safety organizations here, or if there are they don't have any power. Children ride sidesaddle on motor scooters, sometime balanced atop piles of food or building materials. There are no helmets. Trucks are free to travel the highways with their loads seemingly unsecured. Sidewalks drop off with no railing or warning. The Chinese are obviously not a litigious people.
On this trip, there is still that sense of potential. This time it's all about the Olympic games. The entire country is absolutely abuzz with Olympic fever and this incredible sense of pride.
I stopped at a department store the other night and stood with a group of about twenty shoppers and watched the end of a very exciting volleyball game between China and Japan. The Chinese women won the game and ultimately went on to sweep Japan in the match. The excitement was contagious with much cheering and clapping.
In my meetings around Xi'an, I constantly hear that this is a very special time in China, that the Olympics are here as if I didn't know. Xi'an is over 500-miles from Beijing and there are no events being held here, but there is obviously a very strong sense of pride in the games.
We were refused permission from the Civil Affairs Office to travel to Weinan City, in part due to security concerns associated with the Olympics. Seems that there are some worries about terrorism. There is a very heavy police presence here in Xi'an. I imagine the police are absolutely everywhere in Beijing.
Just to give you a sense of the 'Olympic premium:' the hotel we stayed at two years ago in Beijing was getting $750 a night last weekend when we passed through. In two weeks, when we pass through Beijing again -- after the Olympics -- that same room is $105 a night.
On this trip I seem to be paying more attention to the disparity in wealth. Sure there is whole new class of nouveau riche and an ever growing middle class, but there are still a lot of poor people.
Years of double-digit economic growth can be a wonderful thing, but some ultimately get left behind. I wonder what path China will take after the Olympics. Will the good times continue to roll? The global economy needs some country to carry the ball and China is one of the last best hopes.
However, China's newfound economic power could also pose a threat to the global status quo once the Olympics are behind them and they don't have to worry about any punitive action marring the Games. There has been some speculation that China might look to further diversify their reserve holdings. It's no secret that the vast majority of Chinese currency reserves are presently held in dollars.
With the dollar trading significantly higher, and gold lower, over the past several weeks, now might be the ideal time for China to start unloading some of those dollar holdings. Such a move would simultaneously weigh on the greenback and bolster gold. Such a move would also correspond closely to seasonal lows in gold.
China historically used its dollar reserves to buy US treasuries, financing our ever-growing deficits. If demand for treasuries drops, interest rates are going to have to rise, which would have a negative impact on an already vulnerable US economy, not to mention those deficits. Higher interest rates will further tighten US credit markets, which have been on the verge of seizing up for months.
I don't think China wants to destroy their primary market, but they also need to protect their own assets. One thing seems pretty evident; the fate of the US economy is not really in our hands anymore. China is holding, if not all the cards, certainly all the aces.