A discussion with James Turk this week renewed my interest in his Fear Index. So I decided to calculate the current figure. Given the 2.8% GFI figure listed in the equation below, clearly the gold market mania phase is only beginning, when compared to the 1980's peak:
Next we use the formula to extrapolate a gold price forecast. The chart shows the Fear Index apogee of roughly 9% in 1980. So we plug in a new gold price of $5,000 which results in 9% GFI reading.
Thus according to the GFI, the fair value for gold is $5,000. Keep in mind that the gold price forecast moves higher as the M3 money supply figure increases. For instance, if we assume the M3 climbs to the number listed below, in accordance with expectations, gold could soar above $5,000, to $7,000:
Next we apply the GFI formula to the silver market, resulting with a new indicator: the silver fear index (SFI). Since the government has sold off the strategic silver stockpile, all three billion ounces and the US Mint must purchase silver from the free market, the silver market balance figures produced by the CPM Group are used. This figure represents the annual silver inventories. First we calculate the SFI for the 1980's peak price of $50 to use as a base for common size measurement: .54%. Next we calculate the current SFI: .04%. Clearly the silver price is EXTREMELY undervalued relative to 1980. But how undervalued is silver, relative to the 1980's peak?
To determine how undervalued silver is today relative to the previous bull market peak price, the .54% SFI number from the 1980 calculateion is substituted into the 2012 equation below:
Therefore, the SFI indicates that silver must climb to nearly $400 in order to reach it's current fair value! Anecdotally, this is precisely the silver target I proposed in Wealth Building Strategies (2010).
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