-- Posted Thursday, 18 April 2013 | | Disqus
By Jeff Berwick, The Dollar Vigilante
The April monthly issue of TDV comes at a most convenient time this month. The Big Picture is meant to be my monthly overview of where we are at with The End Of The Monetary System As We Know It (TEOTMSAWKI) and all the symptoms of TEOTMSAWKI that are affecting the world.
And there have been plenty of symptoms in the last week most specifically in gold and Bitcoin. Here is The Dollar Vigilante take on how TEOTMSAWKI is affecting the precious metals and Bitcoin market.
GOLD AND SILVER
While gold and silver have tumbled, the Dow Jones Industrial Average had a record high close of 14,865.14 on April 11. The mainstream media is having a great time talking up the new downs in gold and silver that coincided with a record high stock market. One such mainstream finance writer even called the recent dip in gold and rise in the stock market a triumph of civilization over fear...As if the stock market had anything to do with actual productivity or economic stability and growth and wasn't just a sponge for all the new money the Federal Reserve has been creating.
Gold
Silver
Actually, the rise in the stock market was the short-term result of Ben “Helicopter” Bernanke creating trillions of new dollars to fire-hose at the corrupt securities exchanges so that the mainstream could announce that Federal Reserve policies are working and the economy is improving. Never mind that at the unemployment numbers are a bunch of massaged lies. The stock market is up, gold and silver are down and all those proclaiming TEOTMSAWKI --like we here at TDV-- are just a bunch of chickens little.
Propaganda at its finest.
Before I go into my thoughts on gold and silver, let’s review TDV’s Senior Analyst, Ed Bugos’ comments over the last year.
“Just to refresh your memory, my forecast for gold is that it remains largely rangebound this year, between a likely low of around $1550 (plus or minus) and a high of $1800...but I assigned a 20% chance that gold could drop to as low as $1350 without damaging the technical parameters of the overall secular bull market trend. All that is predicated on nothing but normal, but not necessarily easily predictable, short term changes in sentiment or psychology. Last year gold went parabolic. When that happens to any asset, once the momentum disappears, the following correction is always longer and deeper than the stalwart bulls (like us) ever expect... again, we can’t rule out the possibility of it breaking through the low $1500’s and dropping to $1350 as the bull shakes the last of the short term traders out of their positions. Maybe we have to wait until Soros sells.” - May 14, 2012, TDV Exit Implications for Euro and Gold
…“I agree there is a seasonally strong period coming but that might only give us a bump. In fact, the stronger gold is in the short term the more I worry about a retest of the primary trend lower to around $1350 during the summer. The biggest risk that I perceive is that most investors are underestimating the recovery trade in stocks, whether it comes as a result of a monetary policy action aimed at “stabilizing” the crisis in Europe, or whether it comes as a natural progression of the transition to a boom where the private banks take over the money creation process.” - May 22, 2012 TDV Premium Dispatch (pp.9)
“Friday’s action resulted in a pattern that I often find to be reliable: a 1-day bullish reversal, which ended a three-day downtrend that started with a 1-day bearish reversal the day ahead of Bernanke’s testimony last week. Now, it may be that we get a rally up to the $1670 area – the top end of the band of resistance represented by the shaded region in the graph to the right – and then boom...down we go to the $1350-1450 level. After all, the USD is due for a bit of a [rally], and maybe all we’re going to see is a little flutter in gold before the dollar and stock market rally at gold’s expense.” - June 10, 2012 TDV Full Premium (pp.12)
The timing was slightly off (short term timing is impossible to be fully correct on) but the general direction was incredibly correct.
Add to that TDV Golden Trader’s Vin Maru, who received a lot of condemnation for almost completely pulling out of the gold and gold stock market nearly a year ago, yet probably saving subscribers untold amounts of wealth.
I asked him about his views on the gold market and he responded with this today:
“Not bearish longer term.. but we are heading into the summer doldrums so I see just choppy sideways action at these lower prices with possibly one more major drop to come. Then I see a slow grind higher for 1-2 years before we get back close to or above $1800 (late 2014)... in a few years out then a parabolic move into mania.... But actually, I have been bearish for some time now and still have not turned back to being fully bullish where I would say back up the truck and go all in on margin and leverage. I am just calling it the way I see it.... I could be right, I could be wrong.... “
I hope TDV subscribers can appreciate the slightly different viewpoints of all our writers/analysts. We are all on the same page long-term, but we provide our honest feelings about the direction short-term so you can best make your own decisions. These are incredibly interesting times with no historical road map and we want to provide you with the input of all our great thinkers so you can be given the best information from which to situate your ass (citizenship and virtual non-citizenship through a Perpetual Traveler/Prior taxpayer lifestyle) and assets.
I will weigh in with my own view on the precious metals market in the pages of this month's issue of the The Dollar Vigilante newsletter. Subscribers will get that along with actionable advice from TDV Senior Analyst Ed Bugos on what move to make right now to make life-changing wealth when gold bounces back big. Click here now to learn more about subscribing.
To continue reading Jeff Berwick’s “The Big Picture” in its entirety, please subscribe to TDV Premium.
-- Posted Thursday, 18 April 2013 | Digg This Article
| Source: GoldSeek.com
