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Gold Seeker Daily Report for October 9, 2003
By: Peter Spina, Gold Seeker


-- Posted Thursday, 9 October 2003 | Digg This ArticleDigg It!

October 09, 2003


 

Dec Gold

$369.80 -6.20

368.60 – 377.70

 

Dec Silver

$4.842 -.028

4.77 – 4.910

 

HUI

196.79 -1.08

196.53 – 200.77

 

XAU

91.06 -0.32

88.62 – 91.08

 

DJIA

9680 +49.11

 

 

NASDAQ

1911 +18.12

 

 

10 Year Bond

4.302 +0.060

4.259 – 4.348

 

 

US Dollar Index

91.97 +0.35

(19:00 EST)

91.30 – 92.36

 

 

CRB Index

244.87 +1.49

242.65 – 244.87

 

 

 

Closing data as of 4:05 p.m. EST. from what is believed to be reliable sources. All prices quoted are in United States dollars unless otherwise noted.

 

 

Gold bulls were pushed aside for a second day as sellers took command of the gold and silver markets. For the second time in a week, support for gold came into play as the December contract managed to close just above 369 level as funds were hesitant to make a commitment to the yellow metal. After a low right before the close of 368.60, gold had a small bounce settling at 369.80 or down $6.20, the lowest close seen in a month. From the Comex session, speculators slammed gold nearly $10 from early London prices as the U.S. dollar flirted with its downtrend resistance and with strong U.S. equity prices. After the Comex session closed, the U.S. dollar did ease a bit from its highs, which should give gold support in overnight trading. Tomorrow will be critical as gold is near important support levels, which were tested last Friday as well. Silver managed to test the low 4.90s resistance levels before it sold-off with gold getting good buying in the high 4.70 area. Silver closed the day down only 2.8 cents to $4.842.

By the looks of gold and silver shares, one would be surprised to see gold down as much as it did on the day. After the initial morning sell-off to the 192 level area, a bounce was seen followed by another test of the 192 support zone. From there, steady buying which manifested into near frenzy buying into the close sending the HUI up more than  5 points from its daily low even though gold closed down over $6 an ounce and near its lows. After gold closed (comex), the dollar eased with the general markets making buyers feel confident gold would reverse its bearish tone soon. Volume came in slightly light on some equities while moderate to heavy volume was seen on the majority of major gold/silver shares.

 

WINNERS

1.   Agnico-Eagle Mines 12.69 +0.16 (1.28%)  0.813M

2.   Gold Fields             13.64 +0.13 (0.96%)  1.720M

3.    Randgold & Explor.  13.10 +0.09 (0.69%)  100k

 

 

LOSERS

1.   Minefinders     7.85 -0.42 (5.08%)  92K

2.    Durban Deep  2.59 -0.08 (3.00%) 5.817M

3.   Crystallex       2.52 -0.07 (2.70%) 0.967M

 

- Company News - 

AngloGold declined to rule out upping its bid for Ashanti as the rival bid from Randgold Resources represents a far superior offer. “Based on Thursday afternoon share prices, Randgold's all-share offer was worth $1.48 billion, 18.3 percent more than AngloGold's at $1.25 billion.” - details

After hours, Crystallex announced it has agreed to sell its Uruguayan interests to Uruguay Mineral Exploration Inc. “Under the terms of the agreement, UME will pay Crystallex US$2,000,000 payable in two equal installments. The first payment of US$1,000,000 will be due 6 months after the closing date of the transaction and the second US$1,000,000 payment will be due 12 months after the closing date. Closing of the transaction is expected on or before October 22, 2003.” - details

 Golden Star announced it has completed it previously announced buyback of debt and royalties to the Wassa project for $11.5 million. According to the details, the buyback agreement purchase represents approximately 20% discount of the face value of the debt repayment. - Details

Campbell Resources announced that work is underway in the West Zone which confirms previously issued results. – more info

U.S. Gold Corp. reported that the 1st phase of exploration drilling results. (details) “Gold Resource Corporation, a private Colorado corporation, is exploring its El Aguila property in the state of Oaxaca, Mexico. Canyon Resources Corporation is funding the exploration program (announced in USGL's August 18, 2003, press release) and can earn a 50% interest in the property by funding $3.5 million in exploration and development expenditures.”

Piedmont Mining Company  said today that a new group of investors aquired 9 million shares in a private placement. This represents about 24% of the company’s outstanding shares. – more info

 

- Market Watch -

Although the stock market ended up the day up ˝ to 1% across the board, they were unable to hold onto much larger gains seen in the first 2/3rds of the day’s trading. Yahoo provided an impetus to the Nasdaq, which nearly hit 1940 intraday closing at 1911.90 up almost a 1% on the day. Positive economic data and good earnings were major contributors to the bullish atmosphere on Wall Street.

Even with 3-year lows for the U.S. dollar vs. the Yen, the BOJ said they are ready to intervene into the markets again to prop up the dollar. Prior attempts have helped support the dollar but many argue in the end; such attempts only correct a short-term problem making the long-term issue even more problematic.  "The yen's recent gains have been too sharp. It's bad for the economy," chief Cabinet secretary Yasuo Fukuda told reporters in Tokyo yesterday. "We will respond to excessive moves. We will take decisive steps." - More

 

- Economy Watch -

Consumers continued their unrelenting demand for goods posting their biggest monthly sales gain in 18 months with Walmart leading the charge.

Initial claims for the week were 382k below market expectations although previous week’s 399k data was revised to 405k.

Import/Export prices data for September were released as well. Export minus agriculture was at -0.1% while Import prices minus oil jumped 0.2%.  

 

 

-        Technical Watch –

Gold Watch: Today’s gold slump and positive S&P action allowed for breaching the 3-year downtrend ratio. We will keep a close eye in the next days to see if this is a permanent breaking of the current downtrend line or if it will be able to quickly move below the resistance line. At today’s close, we are at 2.81 just barely peaking above the downtrend line. The ratio represents how many ounces of gold are required to purchase the S&P 500 contract. As you can clearly see, the action on Friday pushed the ratio back to the downtrend line started all the way back in 2000 when the S&P 500 topped and gold shortly after began its bull market. We are nearing a conclusion to the converging triangle in the ratio and would suspect in the next few weeks (if not days!) we will see of the uptrend from February is broken or the 3-year downtrend is breached.

 

Gold Short-Term: Gold is at a good support area, breaching it would mean some $10 of downside risk to the next major support levels. Taking a look at the dollar, which tested its downtrend line, if it is going to head back south now, we would suspect this support level would hold. Along with strong gold equity prices, we are hopeful we are just trading “the range” at this time. Pay close attention to gold now as we are at critical short-term junctures. I am reposting the Fib numbers per request from our Florida reader. Taking 394.80 as our high and 321.30 as our low, a .382 retracement = 366.723; .5 retracement = 358.08; .618 retracement = 349.377.  

 

Gold Long-Term: We sometimes take too much of a detailed view of the short, short-term. Look at the gold bull from early 2001. You can see the channel we have been in for the most part during this 3-year period. Pullbacks are normal, healthy occurrences in the golden bull and until we test the lower uptrend lines should there be any concern for the long-term health of this gold bull!!

 

Dollar Watch – Short Term: U.S. dollar tested the downtrend line today, which It did not break - the Euro was weaker today (tested its support at 1.169 and succeeded) and the Yen hit new 3-year highs!

  

Dollar Watch – Long Term: U.S. dollar index from a longer-term perspective gives us a clearer view of the downtrend channel we are in. We are still a ways from the bottom of the downwards channel support line. I would say the dollar’s woes will continue as we test this area before any substantial rebound is to occur.

 

Precious Stock Watch – Short Term: The HUI is finding good support with the 50-day moving average. Watch to see if the HUI can find support at this area and if it closes below it, if it can reverse course quickly like was seen in the July correction. Today’s price action exemplifies the power of the bulls as a $6+ move down in gold was no match for the powerful move up from the support line we saw. A reversal higher for gold in the days ahead could mean new highs for shares. A break to the downside could see large price destruction.   

 

Precious Stock Watch – Long Term: Here is a long-term picture of the HUI (weekly closing data) with some ideas of support / resistance areas.

Disclaimer: GoldSeek.com makes no representation, warranty or guarantee as to the accuracy or completeness of the information (including news, editorials, prices, statistics, analyses and the like) provided through Gold Seeker. Any copying, reproduction and/or redistribution of any of the documents, data, content or materials contained on or within this website, without the express written consent from GoldSeek.com, is strictly prohibited. In no event shall GoldSeek.com or its affiliates be liable to any person(s) for any decision(s) made or action(s) taken in reliance upon the information provided herein. © Gold Seeker 2003

 


-- Posted Thursday, 9 October 2003 | Digg This Article




 



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