-- Posted Sunday, 5 December 2004 | Digg This Article
Market Analysis from CapitalUpdates.com:
A new 16 year high for gold and a new 9 year low for the U.S. Dollar Index were the headlines Friday as Nonfarm Payrolls largely disappointed and drove new lows for the dollar versus the yen and euro as well.
Nonfarm Payrolls did come in much lower than the expected 200,000 at 112,000. October’s 337,000 hires were also revised down to 303,000. The Average Workweek came in lower than the expected 33.8 at 33.7, Hourly Earnings came in lower than the expected 0.3% at 0.1%, and the Unemployment Rate came in as expected at 5.4%. ISM Services came in higher than the expected 58.5 at 61.3. See this week’s statistics below for all of these numbers shown versus the prior month’s number and click on the embedded links to access stories behind the numbers or visit our archives for even more stories covering these economic reports.
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“The sell off in crude oil futures continued for a fourth straight day Friday, with prices skidding below $43 a barrel to roughly 14 percent below where they were at the start of the week. Market sentiment about the supply-demand fundamentals has definitely shifted amid rising inventories of heating oil and mild fall weather in the United States, though the selling is also feeding on itself, analysts say, due to technical and speculative trading.” Oil lost $0.71 to $42.54 on Friday and is down by $6.90 or 13.96% on the week.
The 10-Year Treasury note yield fell 0.127 points on Friday to 4.27% as the 30-Year US Treasury bond price gained 1.245 points to 111.125. For the week, the yield is still up by 0.03 points or 0.71% and bonds are still down by 1.5313 points or 1.36%.
The Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P were mixed in choppy trade on Friday and ended with 0.07%, 0.2%, and 0.07% gains, respectively. For the week, the Dow is up by 0.67% or 69.98 points to 10592.21, the Nasdaq is up by 2.19% or 45.99 points to 2147.96, and the S&P gained 0.72% or 8.52 points to 1191.17. The Dow has gained in 5 of the past 6 weeks, the Nasdaq has gained in 6 of the past 7 weeks, and the S&P has gained in 5 of the past 6 weeks.
Record Budget and Trade deficits have been the long term overall cause in the dollar’s decline, though disappointing economic reports provide for plenty of downside moves in the short term. Today’s economically disappointing jobs data provides as a perfect example as the U.S. dollar index made new 9 year lows, the euro index made new all time highs, and the yen made new 4 year highs.
The U.S. dollar index fell 1.04 points on Friday to 80.92 and is down by 1.04% or 0.85 points on the week. The euro index gained 1.84 points on Friday to 134.53 and is up by 1.21% or 1.61 points on the week. The yen gained 0.95 points on Friday to 97.93 and is up by 0.43% or 0.42 points on the week.
This week’s economic statistics with the current number versus the prior number:
Gold & Silver Report from GoldSeek.com & SilverSeek.com:
Gold Warehouse Stocks: | 5,389,874 | - |
Silver Warehouse Stocks: | 102,833,357 | + 1,934 |
COT Gold Report - December 3, 2004
COT Silver Report - December 3, 2004
Gold and silver did initially spike upward on Friday’s jobs report, but both metals quickly fell back lower and stayed lower than yesterday’s close until the very end of trading when both gold and silver spiked upward as investors digested the weakness in the dollar. Some small explosions in Madrid also drove investors to turn to gold as a safe haven investment.
"Gold was struggling on either side of unchanged when news hit of the bombings in Spain," said Peter Grandich, editor of the Grandich Letter. Traders "who sold the market short right after the pop off the unemployment numbers scrambled to cover in the last hour of trading," he said. And "a new high on the euro didn't hurt."
Gold more than made up for yesterday’s losses as it gained $5.30 to a new 16 year high of $455.70. Silver made back most of yesterday’s losses as it gained $0.09 to $7.99. For the week, gold is up $6.20 or 1.38% and silver is up by $0.39 or 5.13%. Gold has gained for seven straight weeks and has gained in twelve of the last thirteen weeks. Silver has gained in nine of the past twelve weeks.
The XAU, HUI, and GDM were not able to make up yesterday’s 3% and 4% losses despite the rebound in precious metals today. Investors continue to take profits and wait for a correction in the equities, but that is proving very hard to come by as precious metals remain resilient and continually make new highs. The three indices started Friday off slightly lower before rallying and making their highs around 1PM EST and then falling off a bit into the close to end with 0.62%, 0.21%, and 0.64% gains. For the week, the XAU is down by 5.48% or 6.02 points to 103.85, the HUI is down by 6.64% or 16.15 points to 227.24, and the GDM is down by 6.69% or 51.58 points to 719.16. The losses this week are somewhat confusing considering that gold is at 16 year highs and silver is just 30 cents away from 17 year highs. This weekend’s Gold Seeker report by Peter Spina will analyze different scenarios with gold and silver shares.
Gold & Silver Stock News Update from GoldReview.com:
Hecla’s agreement with Timberline late Thursday, more news on the struggle between Harmony, Gold Fields, and Iamgold, Mines Management’s quarterly update, and Richmont Mines’ exercised option to acquire 55% of the Island Gold project were among the big stories in the gold and silver mining industry making headlines Friday; get the full stories at http://www.goldreview.com/. Access our archives here and use the menu on the left hand side in order to navigate through all of our stories.
- Written by Chris Mullen
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-- Posted Sunday, 5 December 2004 | Digg This Article
Gold Seeker Weekly Wrap-Up November 29 to December 5, 2004
