-- Posted Thursday, 26 July 2007 | Digg This Article
| Close | Gain/Loss |
Gold | $662.30 | -$11.40 |
Silver | $12.83 | -$0.25 |
XAU | 147.25 | -3.96% |
HUI | 345.79 | -3.57% |
GDM | 1092.05 | -3.64% |
JSE Gold | 2632.01 | -0.44% |
USD | 80.46 | -0.19 |
Euro | 137.51 | +0.37 |
Yen | 84.24 | +1.15 |
Oil | $74.95 | -$0.93 |
10-Year | 4.777% | -0.127 |
T-Bond | 109.90625 | +1.03125 |
Dow | 13473.57 | -2.26% |
Nasdaq | 2599.34 | -1.84% |
S&P | 1482.66 | -2.33% |
The Metals:
Gold traded a couple of dollars higher in Asia, but it then began to fall off in late London trade and continued to drop in New York to fall to as low as $659.90 by early afternoon before it bounced back higher in the last hour of trade and ended with a loss of 1.69%. Silver followed a similar pattern and fell to as low as $12.65 before it rebounded over 1% off its low in afternoon trade and ended with a loss of 1.91%.
While some suggest that gold fell today in sympathy with general market weakness, others look towards the carry trade as the New Zealand central bank raised interest rates to 8.25% last night and that encouraged shifts in carry trade positions as evidenced by a strong rally in the yen today. Others point to weakening economic growth that may dampen demand, while still others point towards manipulation and blatant price capping to drive prices down especially with options expiring today. Simple profit taking from the last month’s run from roughly $640 to nearly $690 may also have been in order. Whatever the reason, most pundits are quick to point out that sharp drops in the prices of gold and silver as seen in the last two days should be seen as opportunities to add to positions and ride the trend that has only gone up overall for over 6 years and counting as fundamental reasons to do so have only improved over that time frame.
Euro gold fell to about €480, platinum lost $3 to $1,315, palladium remained unchanged at $364, and copper rose roughly 4 cents to about $3.61.
Gold and silver equities fell over 5% by mid-afternoon, but they then rallied back higher in the last two hours of trade and ended with less than 4% losses.
The Economy:
Report | For | Reading | Expected | Previous |
Durable Orders | June | 1.4% | 2.0% | -2.8% |
Initial Claims | 7/21 | 301K | 310K | 303K |
Help-Wanted Index | June | 26 | 27 | 27 |
New Home Sales | June | 834K | 900K | 893K |
Tomorrow at 8:30AM EST brings second quarter GDP expected at 3.2% and the Chain Deflator expected at 3.4%. At 10AM is Michigan Sentiment for July expected at 91.5.
The Markets:
Charts Courtesy of http://finance.yahoo.com/
Oil rose in early trade to as high as $77.24 and topped the Brent crude price for the first time in 5 months in further reaction to yesterday’s drop in crude inventories, but it ended the day with a loss of over 1% on concerns over slowing economic growth that may cut into demand. A general flight to cash in all positions also encouraged selling as traders kept an eye on OPEC that my increase production at their next meeting as well.
The U.S. dollar index fell as the yen rallied sharply on the unwinding of the carry trade while poor economic data and worries over the credit market also encouraged dollar selling.
Poor economic data and credit worries also sent the Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P dramatically lower and encouraged bond buying that sent the yield on the 10-year under 4.8% for the first time in over two months. The Dow was down over 430 points at one point before it rallied over 100 points from its low of the session, but the major indices still closed with roughly 2% losses.
Among the big names making news in the market today were 3M, Berkshire and Kraft, Exxon Mobil, Ford Motor, Beazer Homes, Office Depot, Kellogg, and US Airways.
The Commentary:
“August Gold finished down 11 at 662.8, 10.3 off the high and 2.8 up from the low.
September Silver closed down 0.2 at 12.95. This was 0.16 up from the low and 0.135 off the high.
The gold market reversed some minor early gains, showed some early selling and then came under aggressive liquidation in the wake of an acceleration of the washout in the stock market. In short, those gold players hoping for flight to quality interest had to be extremely disappointing. With the oil market eventually succumbing to the physical commodity market weakness, it would seem as if the outside market condition is capable of sitting on the back of the gold market in the days ahead. In fact, not seeing the Dollar resume the recent downside pattern in the wake of a series of soft US reports actually seemed to disappoint the gold trade even more. Certainly the magnitude of the downside washout served to trigger sell stops and it is likely that the technical pressure will remain on the market until the August gold contract re-gains $665.
While the September silver contract did manage to reject the initial wave down, the technical damage on the charts seems rather severe, but as long as the threat of broad based commodity fund selling circulates in the back ground it might be difficult for the silver market to pull out fresh speculative buying interest. Like the gold market, the silver bulls have to be extremely disappointed in the metals markets failure to embrace the current financial debacle as a positive.” - The Hightower Report, Futures Analysis and Forecasting
GATA Posts:
John Crudele: Wish my FOIA request a happy birthday
Nick Jones: The gold carry trade
Mortgage defaults already coming from good-credit borrowers
Zimbabwe's official gold price rises 10-fold overnight
Reg Howe: Gibson's Paradox and rising rates
The Statistics:
As of close of business: 7/25/2007
Gold Warehouse Stocks: | 6,910,698 | - |
Silver Warehouse Stocks: | 130,849,442 | + 632,920 |
Global Gold ETF Holdings
[WGC Sponsored ETF’s]
| Product name | Total Tonnes | Total Ounces | Total Value |
New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) AND Singapore Exchange (SGX) | Streettracks Gold Shares | 497.15 | 15,983,883 | US$ 10,782m |
London Stock Exchange (LSE) AND Euronext Paris AND Borsa Italiana AND Frankfurter Wertpapierbörse (Deutsche Börse ) | Gold Bullion Securities | 94.65 | 3,043,092 | US$ 2,011m |
Australian Stock Exchange (ASX) | Gold Bullion Securities | 12.48 | 400,814 | US$ 265m |
Johannesburg Securities Exchange (JSE) | New Gold Debentures | 13.92 | 447,442 | US$ 301m |
Note: No change in Total Tonnes from yesterday’s data.
COMEX Gold Trust (IAU)
Profile as of 7/25/2007 | |
Total Net Assets | $993,286,509 | Ounces of Gold
in Trust | 1,475,649.875 |
Shares Outstanding | 14,900,000 | Tonnes of Gold
in Trust | 45.90 |
Note: No change in Total Tonnes from yesterday’s data.
Silver Trust (SLV)
Profile as of 7/25/2007 | |
Total Net Assets | $1,865,913,979 | Ounces of Silver
in Trust | 141,671,812.200 |
Shares Outstanding | 14,250,000 | Tonnes of Silver
in Trust | 4,406.49 |
Note: No change in Total Tonnes from yesterday’s data.
The Stocks:
Glencairn’s (GLE) suspended mine operations announced late yesterday, Fronteer’s (FRG) drill results, Lihir’s (LIHR) gold production, Kimber’s (KBX) updated resource estimate, First Majestic’s (FR.V) second quarter silver production, Arian’s (AGQ.V) drill results, Palmarejo’s (PJO.V) drill results, Coeur’s (CDE) appointed project manager, and SiverCrest’s (SVL.V) drill results were among the big stories in the gold and silver mining industry making headlines today.
WINNER
1. Northern Dynasty | NAK +2.11% $13.05 |
LOSERS
1. Crystallex | KRY -7.33% $3.54 |
2. Rubicon | RBY -7.31% $2.13 |
3. Minco Gold | MGH-6.32% $1.171 |
Winners & Losers tracks NYSE and AMEX listed gold and silver mining stocks that trade over $1.
All of today's gold and silver stock news:
Belvedere Resources Ltd. - Stock Option Grants - More
- July 26, 2007 | Item | E-mail
Jaguar Mining Q2 2007 Earnings Conference Call Details - More
- July 26, 2007 | Item | E-mail
Yankee Hat Announces Additional 2007 Winter Drilling Results From Its Fran Gold Project - More
- July 26, 2007 | Item | E-mail
Idaho General Mines Plans Expanded Throughput Capacity at Mt. Hope; Anticipates Increased Project NPV - More
- July 26, 2007 | Item | E-mail
Olympus: Intersects Further High-Grade Mineralization Within North Extension of Phuoc Son Gold Deposit - More
- July 26, 2007 | Item | E-mail
First Majestic Silver Corp.: Second Quarter Silver Production Increases - "FIRST MAJESTIC SILVER CORP. (First Majestic or the "Company") (CDNX:FR.V - News)(Other OTC:FRMSF.PK - News)(Frankfurt:FMV.F - News)(WKN: A0LHKJ) is pleased to announce that silver production in the second quarter ending June 30th, 2007 has increased by 13% over the prior quarter to 852,721 equivalent ounces of silver which is also an increase of 298% over the same quarter ending June 2006." More
- July 26, 2007 | Item | E-mail
Geoinformatics Exploration Inc.: Mexican Exploration Drills Significant Molybdenum and Copper Intersections and Identifies Two New Polymetallic Prospects - More
- July 26, 2007 | Item | E-mail
Gold Reef International to Present at Leading Metals & Mining Conference in New York City
Gold Seeker Closing Report: Gold and Silver Fall Nearly 2% Again