-- Posted Monday, 6 February 2006 | Digg This Article

 

GOLD				SILVER
COMEX GOLD APRIL FUTURE -- $575.90				COMEX SILVER MARCH FUTURE -- $986.00
	Lower	Expected	Higher		Lower	Expected	Higher
BUY	558.40	570.20	589.20	BUY	952.00	976.00	1012.00
SELL	567.50	587.30	608.50	SELL	971.00	1008.00	1050.00
EXPECTED TRADING RANGE
GOLD -- $562.40 -- $600.00				SILVER -- $958.50 - $1020.00
COPPER AND CRUDE OIL -- EXPECTED TRADING RANGE
COPPER MARCH -- $220.60 - $228.60				NYMEX CRUDE OIL FEBRUARY - $62.20 - $66.47
GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS
Gold, silver as well as copper has been inching higher and higher with the passage of every week.  Iran has been overwhelmingly sidelined as its nuclear programme has been referred to the UN Security Council. Iran has gone on the offensive after this and said that   it plans to immediately carry out its threat to cut off cooperation with the world's atomic energy watchdog. Iran repeatedly said in the run-up to the vote it would end all voluntary cooperation with the IAEA, including snap inspections under the additional protocol to the Non Proliferation Treaty. Iran ratified the treaty in 1970, but not the protocol.   The big question is now that whether a war with Iran will be there or diplomatic solution is possible. The US and its allies are adamant that Iran stops uranium enrichment so that it is not able to make nuclear weapons. The most imminent threat is of Iran buying such weaponry and mounting it on missiles or, worse, supplying it to its terrorist client Hezbollah in Lebanon. An Israeli pre-emptive strike against Iran would have worse consequences than a US/British intervention. Crude oil could easily cross the $80.00 mark if there are any indications of an attack on Iran. Gold, silver and other safe havens like the swiss franc will continue to gain irrespective of the movement of the US dollar.  The Fed meeting is over and next meeting will be after seven weeks. The US January payroll numbers suggests that the trickle down effect of hurricane Katrina is still helping to create more jobs in the US economy along with a warmer weather in January. The next big number is the trade balance and current account deficit and the treasury flow numbers. If the trade balance numbers rises then markets will have to think of the same if there is a war with Iran. In Gulf war 1, US made billions of dollars on contribution from its allies and time will tell if history is repeated. US trade balance and current account deficit will be affect the US dollar in a big way in 2006 unlike 2005.  The medium to long term bullishness remains intact for gold and silver with $605.00 and $1050.00 as the immediate price targets. Pullback will provide yet another buying opportunity. Chinese presence will be felt once again after they open after the Chinese New Year and lets see whether copper sees a correction. .
GOLD
Gold now as new support base at $565.00 and is trading in $570.00 - $585.00 zone. A consolidated break of $580.00 for four hours will result in $600.00 and $625.00. Only a close below $568.00 for two consecutive days will result in further losses to $550.00 and $540.00 else the downside will remain limited to $568.00.
SILVER
Silver now targets $1000.00 and $1050.00 if it holds $952.00 on closing basis. It is consolidating at $972.00 at the moment and is nearing over brought territory and there may be a correction to $952.00 and $936.00 which will present yet another buying opportunity.
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-- Posted Monday, 6 February 2006 | Digg This Article

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