-- Posted Tuesday, 14 February 2006 | Digg This Article

 

GOLD	SILVER
COMEX GOLD APRIL FUTURE -- $539.20	COMEX SILVER MARCH FUTURE -- $908.00
EXPECTED TRADING RANGE
GOLD -- $525.00 -- $560.00	SILVER -- $868.00 - $960.00
COPPER AND CRUDE OIL -- EXPECTED TRADING RANGE
COPPER MARCH -- $215.60 - $235.60	NYMEX CRUDE OIL FEBRUARY - $60.20 - $64.15
MULTI COMMODITY EXCHANGE OF INDIA (MCX)
GOLD APRIL FUTURE/10 GRAMS	SILVER MARCH FUTURE/KG
Rs.7640 - Rs.8040	Rs.13000 - Rs.13560
COPPER MARCH FUTURE	CRUDE OIL FEBRUARY FUTURE
Rs.210.20 - Rs.228.60	Rs.2671 - Rs.2825
GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS
Gold continued its slide as April future it fell to a low of $538.20 while silver March future fell to a low of $905.50. The current slide is just profit taking and churning of portfolio by fund managers. The Yen gained against the major currencies as Japanese repatriated ahead if their fiscal close next month.  The current fall in gold has increased physical activity globally. There is more physical demand next month. In India new crops (wheat, oilseeds, pulses etc) are expected to come up next month. The big farmers in India invest between 20% to 25% if their income  from sale of these crops in gold irrespective of the prices. In India agricultural income is tax free. The physical dealer in gold in villages has started buying physical gold on dips in anticipation of demand in March and April. The Indian marriage season is also at its peak.  The fall in prices has resulted greater demand for the yellow metal. When gold was at $570.00 - $575.00 people used to exchange their old gold ornaments with the new ones and the net addition of gold to new ornaments was a few grams for a average buyers. Now the jeweller in India is a happy man a small fall has resulted good demand.  Syria has announced that they were switching all of their reserves to Euros from dollars.  Syria has said that they have “billions of dollars.”  According to the CIA Factbook, Syria’s reserves of foreign exchange and gold as of 2004 are approximately $5 billion.  Compare that to Japan’s reserves of $610 billion in the same period and so the markets ignored the news.  There are rumors that Iran could switch to Euro reserves as well to protect their foreign assets.  The market is also keeping an eye on Iran’s plan to open a new International Oil Bourse which would trade oil in Petroeuros instead of Petrodollars.  As the world’s third largest holder of oil reserves, Iran’s move could pave the way for other countries to offer oil denominated in Euro’s in order to compete with Iran.  Looking ahead, there are a lot of reasons why countries within the Eurozone and Russia would prefer to trade oil in Euros over dollars.  The volatility in the US dollar and the cost of converting currencies could  make Petroeuros particularly attractive.  This is the only reason why US president Bush is creating media hype that Iran will quickly enrich the Uranium it has into nuclear weapons and attack US, Europe and other nations. While the fact is that it will take years for Iran to develop nuclear weapons unless it imports them.  The current fall and further fall will present another opportunity for short sellers to exit and long term traders to re enter gold and silver.
GOLD
Gold needs hold $535.00 and key medium term support at $525.00 to prevent a fall to $514.00. On the higher side $560.00 and $568.00 are the resistance.
SILVER
Silver needs to hold $903.50 to prevent a fall to $887.00 and $874.00. There will be buyers under $900.00 and the fall under $900.00 will be limited. On the higher side $952- $960.00 is the resistance zone.
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-- Posted Tuesday, 14 February 2006 | Digg This Article

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