-- Posted Monday, 27 February 2006 | Digg This Article

 

GOLD	SILVER
COMEX GOLD APRIL FUTURE -- $559.20	COMEX SILVER MARCH FUTURE -- $967.00
EXPECTED TRADING RANGE
GOLD -- $548.00 -- $575.00	SILVER -- $940.50 - $1021.00
COPPER AND CRUDE OIL -- EXPECTED TRADING RANGE
COPPER MARCH -- $210.30 - $228.60	NYMEX CRUDE OIL MARCH  - $60.35 - $64.55
MULTI COMMODITY EXCHANGE OF INDIA (MCX)
GOLD APRIL FUTURE/10 GRAMS	SILVER MARCH FUTURE/KG
Rs.7990 - Rs.8200	Rs.13330 - Rs.13730
COPPER MARCH FUTURE	CRUDE OIL MARCH FUTURE
Rs.215.30 - Rs.226.60	Rs.2681 - Rs.2930
The foiled terror attack on oil fields in Saudi Arabia resulted in gold, silver as well as crude oil zooming. Fridays move was another reflection of how fragile the market is and there was a panic. Had the attack not been on an oil field, the rise in gold and silver would be limited. The settlement for gold and silver came in nearly after one hour from close in pit session which was a reflection of panic. Gold April future settled higher at $561.20 while silver March future $973.20.  Diplomatic solution to Iran’s nuclear ambitions still seems a possibility after Iran, agreed to receive enriched uranium from Russia in a deal to avoid United Nations action against the Islamic state. Russian and Iranian officials will continue talks in Moscow this week to complete the preliminary agreement to form a joint company to carry out the work, Iranian Vice President for Atomic Energy Qolam-Reza Aqazadeh, said at a joint press conference with Russian officials. Japan is set to urge Iran to ease international concerns over its nuclear ambitions in order to avert United Nations sanctions during a three-day visit to Tokyo by Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki. Unless there is a permanent solution to Iran issue gold and silver will continue to trade firm.  It’s more of the geopolitical threats, higher oil prices that is driving safe havens like gold etc higher. The situation in Middle East is acute. Crude oil looks vulnerable to terror threats. Terror groups are deliberately attacking oil pipelines and refineries as it’s only with one can take every nation to ransom. If crude prices rise it will automatically have a direct effect on future inflation and interest rates.   If I look at various towns and villages in North Indian, some of which I had visited recently, I find that the number of new jewllery shops that are opening is on the rise. I spoke to some of the owners of these shops and they told me that demand is on the rise despite record prices. Indian gold appetite will rise in the coming years. Gold and silver trading in Indian commodity exchanges should also double from the current levels over the next two years. This is the Indian context. In the short term sharp pullbacks should be used as an opportunity to go long.   US President George Bush is on his Asia tour this week and will also be in India on 1st March. His comments on Iran will add higher two way movements in gold and silver. We have the Indian Union budget tomorrow. Any reduction in import duty on gold and silver will result in even higher imports in India and a higher gold and silver prices. It will also be seen whether foreign institutional investors (FII’s) are allowed to invest in Indian commodity exchanges.   For this week and probably for the month of March the changes geopolitical factors, be it middle east, Nigeria, North Korea and any other nation will move gold and silver prices. This may lead to a technical break out on the higher side as well as the lower side. However at the moment the sentiments are clearly bullish and markets move on sentiments in the short run. The de linking between gold and the US dollar will continue as long as US dollar appreciates.
GOLD
Gold needs to break and hold $563.50 for $580.00 - $585.00. There are intermediate supports at $550.00 and $539.10.
SILVER
Silver targets $995 and $1032 as long as it holds $952.00 on closing basis. There are intermediate supports at $940.00 and $926.00.
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-- Posted Monday, 27 February 2006 | Digg This Article

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