-- Posted Tuesday, 14 March 2006 | Digg This Article

 

GOLD	SILVER
COMEX GOLD APRIL FUTURE -- $547.40	COMEX SILVER MAY FUTURE -- $1013.50
EXPECTED TRADING RANGE
GOLD -- $538.00 -- $570.00	SILVER -- $988.50 - $1040.00
COPPER AND CRUDE OIL -- EXPECTED TRADING RANGE
COPPER MAY -- $216.40 - $228.60	NYMEX CRUDE OIL MARCH  - $59.56 - $63.10
MULTI COMMODITY EXCHANGE OF INDIA (MCX)
GOLD APRIL FUTURE/10 GRAMS	SILVER MAY FUTURE/KG
Rs.7860 - Rs.8230	Rs.13900 - Rs.14660
COPPER MAY FUTURE	CRUDE OIL MARCH FUTURE
Rs.216.30 - Rs.228.35	Rs.2623 - Rs.2800
GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS
“Beware the Ides of March”. Gold and silver bears need to be bewared as they edge higher.  The Iranmania continues as Iran vowed to press on with its controversial nuclear activities and played down the threat of economic sanctions ahead of a key UN Security Council meeting on the country's atomic programme. The US dollar pared its gains against the major currencies while crude oil prices on Iran issue and expectations of colder weather in US. Gold April future settled at $547.50 while silver May future settled at $1015.70.  In response to the failed Dubai Port deal, the U.A.E announced plans to shift 10 percent of their reserves to Euros.  Nearly all of the U.A.E’s estimated $28 billion reserves are now in US dollars.  Although 10 percent of that is a paltry amount considering the volume that goes through the foreign exchange on a daily basis, symbolically, it is very important. Reserve diversification is a topic that is expected to return to the headlines repeatedly over the next few years, especially since countries like Iran are talking about offering oil priced in Euros later this month.  Yet these are all factors that are negative for the dollar over the long term.  In the short term however, higher interest rates is supporting the US dollar. Another reason for gold and silver to rise.  China's trade surplus narrowed to the lowest since July 2004 as imports grew at the fastest pace in 15 months and exports cooled. The surplus fell to $2.45 billion from $9.49 billion in January, the customs bureau said. Imports jumped 30 percent as higher oil prices boosted the value of overseas purchases. We do not have the data as what percentage constituted gold and silver. But certainly the Chinese hunger for gold silver will rise over the coming months.  Uncertainty in geopolitical issues will result in higher gold and silver prices. Crude oil prices have not seen a sustained fall below $60.00 a barrel. Higher crude oil prices will add to negative savings rate that US is witnessing, which in turn implies that US economy will be more dependent on foreign investment even for day to day running and to attract foreign flows, the Fed will have to raise interest rates higher than justified which is long term negative US dollar. The end result in higher gold and silver price and that the secular bull run in gold and silver will continue.
GOLD
Gold will try to break $554.00 for $568.00 - $575 zone. On the lower side there is an initial support at $542.80 and $537.60 with $534.00 as the key short term support.
SILVER
Silver targets $1040 and $1076. It will rise faster than gold. Silver is like a Russian viper snake which stays calm after attacking. Silver rises $30 - $40 in one day and then makes previous high as the lower support base. Silver has a support at $994.00 and $968.0.
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Disclaimer : Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of
prices of specific currencies, precious metals, base metals, or equity indices reflect the views
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-- Posted Tuesday, 14 March 2006 | Digg This Article

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