-- Posted Friday, 5 May 2006 | Digg This Article

GOLD	SILVER
COMEX GOLD JUNE FUTURE -- $680.90	COMEX SILVER JULY FUTURE -- $1396.50
EXPECTED TRADING RANGE
GOLD -- $652.10 -- $699.70	SILVER -- $1286.50 - $1492.50
COPPER AND CRUDE OIL -- EXPECTED TRADING RANGE
COPPER JULY -- $322.80 - $382.40	NYMEX CRUDE OIL JUNE  - $71.40 - $77.20
MULTI COMMODITY EXCHANGE OF INDIA (MCX)
GOLD JUNE FUTURE/10 GRAMS	SILVER JULY FUTURE/KG
Rs.9,550- Rs.10,200	Rs.18,600 - Rs.24,200
COPPER JULY FUTURE	CRUDE OIL MAY FUTURE
Rs.316.90 - Rs.382.20	Rs.3,008 - Rs.3,410
GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS
It’s same usual volatility one way direction for gold and silver. Lack of consensus among US and its allies on ways to resolve Iran’s nuclear ambitions has resulted in gold and silver edging higher on closing higher. Silver and gold are forming a higher base with successive correction. This pattern is yet another bullish direction on the technical charts. Gold June futures reached a high of $679.80 while silver July futures reached a high $1423 before settling lower at $676.50 and $1382.50. Crude oil fell after a rise in US gasoline supplies. Euro rose after the ECB chief said that they are vigilant about inflation and may raise interest rates soon. Copper pared all the week’s losses as it July future reached a high of $350.50.   Precious metals as well as base metals are showing no signs of cooling and the pace of their rise is faster with passing of each week. The Iran issue should be resolved in the next two to three months either through the use of force or Iran bowing to the western world. Crude oil prices, global interest rates as well as treasury yields should also rise over next twelve to fifteen weeks. All factors are pointing to the fact that even if gold, silver and other precious metals and base metals rise till July or August 2006, there will be an even severe fall in gold and silver prices not witnessed in history books. You cannot defy the force of gravity for long.   In these slide in gold and silver prices, retail investor have lost heavily in India. The stomach/risk appetite for an average Indian investor investing in Indian commodity exchange MCX/NCDEX had increased to unacceptable levels over the past six months. These retail traders are new traders in commodities and traded the equity way and incurred huge losses in the past two fall in gold and silver prices over the past two weeks. A large number of them are scared to trade in commodities.  In 2005 it was crude oil which hit the commodity trader in India. In 2006 the Indian retail investor lost first in mentha oil’s fall and later in the rise in pulses. Then in gold and silver. Every trader whether in India or any part of the world forgets the profit that he has made but always remembers the loss and in order to recover the losses does not book losses (if the deal is unfavourable and averages) and gets into the web of making losses. This has happened to a large number of traders in Indian commodity exchange. We suggest that booking of loss or using stop losses could mean higher profits in the long run. Commodity markets whether bullion or any other commodity will be more volatile over the coming years and one’s reflex action should be extremely fast in making decision on trading.   We have the April payroll numbers today which will add more volatility to the markets. There could be some profit taking before the numbers are released. Depending upon on the technical support, if there is a major slide today, one can still buy with a stop loss as today is a weekend and traders will prefer to go long than short.
GOLD
Gold targets $688, $700 and $735.00 if $652.30 holds on closing basis. On the lower side $669.40 and $662.00 are the initial support levels. A consolidated fall below $652.30 will result in $644.30 and $622.50.
SILVER
Silver needs to break $1420 for $1452 and $1487.00. A breaks of  $1487 will result in $1577 as the next key resistance level. On the lower side $1327 is the key support level and a fall below the same will result in $1286.50.
For Multi Commodity Exchange of India (MCX) reports as well as NCDEX reports on
metals as well as agri commodities please register at www.insigniaindia.com/register.asp
Happy Profitable Trading
Disclaimer : Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of
prices of specific currencies, precious metals, base metals, or equity indices reflect the views
of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees  have any liability
for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any
party  in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies,
errors in, or omissions of Information.

-- Posted Friday, 5 May 2006 | Digg This Article

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