-- Posted Friday, 12 May 2006 | Digg This Article

GOLD	SILVER
COMEX GOLD JUNE FUTURE -- $719.10	COMEX SILVER JULY FUTURE -- $1476.50
GOLD -- $696.60 -- $752.30	SILVER -- $1313.0 - $1550.50
COPPER AND CRUDE OIL -- EXPECTED TRADING RANGE
COPPER JULY -- $378.50 - $425.40	NYMEX CRUDE OIL JUNE  - $70.80 - $76.20
MULTI COMMODITY EXCHANGE OF INDIA (MCX)
GOLD JUNE FUTURE/10 GRAMS	SILVER JULY FUTURE/KG
Rs.10,200 - Rs.11,200	Rs.20,600 - Rs.28,200
COPPER JULY FUTURE	CRUDE OIL MAY FUTURE
Rs.378.90 - Rs.425.80	Rs.3,140 - Rs.3,410
GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS
It is one of the most memorable weeks for gold and copper. Gold has risen nearly $50 an ounce this week while copper LME edged past the $8,000 per tonne.  Markets have now got used to rise in silver and crude oil prices and so their prices spikes do not amaze. The US dollar gets humped and dumped after the Fed meeting and the fall in US retail sales.   The rise in commodities is equivalent to “too many people chasing too few goods”. From the end use and industrial to the central banks to speculative and investment demand the list is endless. No sources of supplies will take time to come up and which has resulted prices zooming. Earlier speculative demand was between thirty to fourty percent of the prices. With the advent of faster and cheaper means of communication and trading tools, the investment demand or speculative demand which phrase one can call it, more than sixty percent of the current prices is speculative and do not reflect fundamentals. The numbers of faster and cheaper online trading platforms by various companies are on the rise. The percentage of speculative portion of the current prices will be on the rise.   Unstoppable commodity prices has resulted in gold, silver, copper etc traders and industrial users maintaining higher inventories. A combination of higher industrial demand and traders demand along with investment demand from ETF’s are contributing to current price hike. Global treasury yields are on the rise and over a period of time commodity prices will get competition from treasury and Chinese equity markets. As and when the Chinese equity markets develop, one will see funds moving from all the global markets to China.   The current sudden US dollar depreciation could be a deliberate move by the Fed under Bernanke to bail the US economy through manipulation of the US dollar. Higher interest rates long with higher gasoline prices will sooner or later have a long lasting impact on US retail demand. Incremental wages will not able to offset gasoline and interest rates prices rise. Today is the US trade balance numbers and the worst has been factored in by the markets. For the rest of 2006, it will be this numbers that will support than greenback. End result is that the long term bull run in gold and silver prices will continue but volatility will rise even more.   The momentum is certainly bullish. But I expect a technical correction in gold and silver prices as this week the rally has been too much specially in gold.  There will be higher two way movement. Small stop losses will be useless. MCX and NCDEX trader need to have minimum stop loss of INR 175 -200 in gold and INR 700 – 750 in silver to prevent stop losses from being hit. Low risk traders have the patience and wait for the appropriate levels to enter.
GOLD
Gold faces resistance between $730 - $735 and a break of which will result in $782.50 and $812.50. On the lower side the earlier support of $690 is the support level with $669.00 and $652.10 as the key short term support.
SILVER
Silver targets $1550- $165 over the coming weeks. Support levels are at $1452, $1425, $1390 and $1350. Resistances are at $1488, $1510 and $1578.
For SMS service on MCX & NCDEX trading strategies, please mail sms@insigniaindia.com
For Multi Commodity Exchange of India (MCX) reports as well as NCDEX reports on
metals as well as agri commodities please register at www.insigniaindia.com/register.asp
Happy Profitable Trading & Have a great weekend.
Disclaimer : Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of
prices of specific currencies, precious metals, base metals, or equity indices reflect the views
of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees  have any liability
for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any
party  in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies,
errors in, or omissions of Information.

-- Posted Friday, 12 May 2006 | Digg This Article

© 1995 - 2019

Live GoldSeek Visitor Map | Disclaimer