-- Posted Tuesday, 30 May 2006 | Digg This Article

GOLD	SILVER
COMEX GOLD JUNE FUTURE -- $650.40	COMEX SILVER JULY FUTURE -- $1275.00
EXPECTED TRADING RANGE
GOLD -- $609.30 -- $675.00	SILVER -- $1188.0 - $1380.50
COPPER AND CRUDE OIL -- EXPECTED TRADING RANGE
COPPER JULY -- $356.40 - $398.30	NYMEX CRUDE OIL JULY  - $68.20 - $74.20
MULTI COMMODITY EXCHANGE OF INDIA (MCX)
GOLD AUGUST FUTURE/10 GRAMS	SILVER JULY FUTURE/KG
Rs.9,610- Rs.10,200	Rs.18,300 - Rs.20,800
COPPER JULY FUTURE	CRUDE OIL JULY FUTURE
Rs.348.80 - Rs.396.40	Rs.3,100 - Rs.3,500
GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS
Gold, silver and copper are trading in a narrow range after a holiday weekend. There is still short term investor skepticism on the movement of gold, silver, copper and crude oil as well as the US dollar. The US dollar is having an effect on the current movement of gold and silver as carry traders never die. The US dollar is trading in 1.2680 - 1.2980 range against the euro while it has weakened against the loonie and other commodity currencies. The US dollar is being supported by expectations of higher interest rates by the Fed. As and when the Fed signals that is pausing in its quarter percentage interest rate hikes, it could some under renewed selling which could lift up gold, silver and other commodity prices.   The global summer season has begun and one should expect higher two way movement in gold and silver till end August. It will not be one - way traffic this time around. There will be level playing fighting field between bulls and bears till August and thereafter gold and silver bulls should rise in the line with the long term bullish outlook. Crude oil prices are trading between $68.00 and $74.00 a barrel for the past few weeks. Crude oil prices are not falling in anticipation of more hurricanes in the gulf of Mexico. The current crude oil prices reflect the hurricane threats and they will not rise as much this year if there isn’t any major hurricane.   Gold June futures are expiring tomorrow and the roll over will continue. In MCX there are huge long positions in gold June futures between INR 10,100 and INR 10,600 which are yet to be rolled over.  Some of them will be squared off while most of them will be rolled over. The spread between MCX gold June and MCX gold July futures should widen further. In India a large number of retail investors are waiting to buy physical gold and silver for investment purposes. Dealers are waiting for a potential bottom, so as to build up their inventory in gold and silver. If gold prices do not fall below $631.00 then it should test $700 and $716 first. If silver holds $1188 then it should test $1550 - $1600 first. The reason is investors and retailers will get restless and start buying physical gold and silver from the market. A weaker rupee is increasing the gold and silver prices in India.   There are economic numbers including the FOMC minutes as well as May payroll numbers this week which will affect precious metals temporarily. Stop losses below key technical supports are important.
GOLD
Gold needs to break $676.10 for $696 and $714. On the lower side $642.20 is the initial support with $631.60 and $609.40 as the key support levels.
SILVER
Silver needs to break $1300 - $1330 for $1426 and $1480. On the lower side $1240 and $1208 are the support levels with $1188 as the key short term support.
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-- Posted Tuesday, 30 May 2006 | Digg This Article

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