-- Posted Thursday, 29 June 2006 | Digg This Article

GOLD	SILVER
COMEX GOLD AUGUST FUTURE -- $584.90	COMEX SILVER SEPTEMBER FUTURE -- $1027.50
EXPECTED TRADING RANGE
GOLD -- $563.50 -- $613.40	SILVER -- $968.20 - $1120.00
COPPER AND CRUDE OIL -- EXPECTED TRADING RANGE
COPPER JULY -- $308.30 - $342.30	NYMEX CRUDE OIL AUGUST  - $67.60 - $72.20
MULTI COMMODITY EXCHANGE OF INDIA (MCX)
GOLD AUGUST FUTURE/10 GRAMS	SILVER JULY FUTURE/KG
Rs.8,560- Rs.9,020	Rs.15,000 - Rs.16,600
COPPER JULY FUTURE	CRUDE OIL JULY FUTURE
Rs.316.60 - Rs.342.90	Rs.3,280 - Rs.3,450
GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS
The over hype of the Fed continues in every market. The US dollar is trading in a range. Gold and silver and other precious metals as well as base metals are also trading in a range. Such is the power of the Fed. Gold August future failed to break $590 and settled at $581.00. Silver September future settled at $1015.00.   There is nervousness in commodity markets, equity markets as well as treasury markets. The way the markets are reacting it seems that the markets expect the Fed bomb to blast soon. This is the calm before the storm. The Fed has to raise interest rates and may raise interest rates in august also if it committed to control inflation. This has been priced in by the markets. What if the economic number between today’s meeting and August meeting suggest a slowdown in the US economy. This will be very positive for gold and silver. The Fed will not risk growth for inflation.   Even if the US dollar gains and gold and silver prices falls after the Fed meeting , it will be temporary period and will provide yet another opportunity for entering gold and silver. More and more central banks such as the United Arab Emirates are switching a portion of their reserves to Euros and also increasing their gold reserves.  In addition, over the next two months, Russia will be paying their Paris Club debt which is denominated in Euros and is estimated to total $22 billion. Central bank diversification will continue two undermine the US dollar for the next twelve months. Another reason two buy gold and silver on dips for the long term.   Hedge funds, came under fire in the U.S. Senate where witnesses said the $1.2 trillion industry was rife with fraud. ``Is federal law enforcement adequately protecting the nation's capital markets and their participants from the risk of manipulation and fraud'' by hedge funds? former U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission lawyer Gary Aguirre said in written statement accompanying his testimony. ``The answer is no.'' Right now US hedge funds are in a regulatory void without any disclosure or accountability. More and more Freddie Mac in the offing. It’s the only Caribbean based private hedge funds that are buying US treasuries and if their demand reduces the Fed could be forced print more US dollar bills to run its economy. Unless the US trade imbalances and trade deficits are under manageable limits the regulation of hedge funds will be only on paper. Demand for gold and silver exchange traded funds (ETF’s) will rise due to hedge fund frauds. Another reason to buy gold and silver on sharp declines.   The Chinese government disclosed $1.1 billion worth of fraud at one of the country's largest state-owned banks this week, underscoring the risks confronting foreign investors as they seek big stakes in China's precarious banking system. The key difference between India and China is that the Indian banking system is highly regulated. Any collapse of the Chinese banking system could negatively affect Chinese as well as global growth. Reasons to buy gold and silver on declines are unending.
GOLD
Gold needs to break $602.80 for $613.60. Initial support stands at $585.00 and $577.40 with $566.40 as the key intra day support.
SILVER
Silver needs to break and close over $1041.00 for $1071 and $1110.00. On the lower side $1008 is the initial support with the 200 day MA at $983 the key support level.
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Disclaimer : Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of
prices of specific currencies, precious metals, base metals, or equity indices reflect the views
of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees  have any liability
for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any
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errors in, or omissions of Information.

-- Posted Thursday, 29 June 2006 | Digg This Article

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