-- Posted Wednesday, 12 July 2006 | Digg This Article

GOLD	SILVER
COMEX GOLD AUGUST FUTURE -- $643.90	COMEX SILVER SEPTEMBER FUTURE -- $1159.00
EXPECTED TRADING RANGE
GOLD -- $632.30 -- $660.20	SILVER -- $1110.0 - $1240.00
COPPER AND CRUDE OIL -- EXPECTED TRADING RANGE
COPPER SEPTEMBER -- $328.80 - $372.30	NYMEX CRUDE OIL AUGUST  - $72.20 - $75.20
MULTI COMMODITY EXCHANGE OF INDIA (MCX)
GOLD AUGUST FUTURE/10 GRAMS	SILVER SEPTEMBER FUTURE/KG
Rs.9,420- Rs.9,700	Rs.17,050 - Rs.18,900
COPPER AUGUST FUTURE	CRUDE OIL JULY FUTURE
Rs.352.60 - Rs.382.90	Rs.3,320 - Rs.3,550
GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS
My condolences to friends and families of people who died in the Mumbai blasts. The Soccer world cup is over and the Gold cup has started as gold edged past the key short term resistance of $639.60 to a high of $645.10 and silver edged past the 100 day MA at $1158.00 to a high of $1161.00. It all began with copper after threats of potential strike in one of the worlds biggest mine Escondida in Chile. The usual culprit Iran also supported bullion after its refusal to end nuclear research and asked for more time.   One my clients went long in silver September at $1151.00 last Friday and he held on to his long position and exited today. Who wins in the battle between the bulls and bears? The lesson is again to adopt a buy first and sell later strategy for medium to long term investors. Those who are long even at $690.00 - $700.00 there prices will also come in 2006. It’s better to play in the short term with the medium term to long term trend direction. The buy first sell later strategy is not successful always it has to be substituted by technical factors as well.   Syria is the latest central bank to announce that they will drop their peg to the US dollar by the end of the year and move 50 percent of their reserves into Euros.  Syria only has a small amount of reserves, less than one percent of China’s, but symbolically it is important because it indicates that more countries are looking at the breakdown of their trading activities and realizing that the Eurozone now constitutes a far greater portion of their reserves, which is giving them a good reason to change the mix of their reserve holdings. The US dollar demand globally will fall and demand for other currencies will increase with increase in bilateral trade. Gold and silver will rise as result of this.   Central banks are taking the opportunity of the fall in gold prices to increase their holdings of their gold reserves, China being one of them. Central demand will prevent any major fall in gold and silver prices.   Gold and silver still need to close over $640.00 and $1158.00 today else the rally will be short lived. Monday gold and silver fell in European session while Tuesday gold and silver went berserk. It’s a very volatile trade. Short term technical resistances have been breached if gold holds $640.00 then $676.00 and $694.80 are the targets. If silver holds $1158 then $1300 - $1320 are the targets.
GOLD
Gold faces resistance at $652.50 and $676.00. On the lower side $639.40 and $622.60 are the support levels.
SILVER
Silver faces resistance at $1200 and $1242. On the lower side $1158 is the initial support with $1110.00 key short term support.
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-- Posted Wednesday, 12 July 2006 | Digg This Article

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