-- Posted Thursday, 13 July 2006 | Digg This Article

GOLD	SILVER
COMEX GOLD AUGUST FUTURE -- $647.70	COMEX SILVER SEPTEMBER FUTURE -- $1155.50
EXPECTED TRADING RANGE
GOLD -- $634.30 -- $676.20	SILVER -- $1110.0 - $1240.00
COPPER AND CRUDE OIL -- EXPECTED TRADING RANGE
COPPER SEPTEMBER -- $338.80 - $377.30	NYMEX CRUDE OIL AUGUST  - $72.80 - $78.20
MULTI COMMODITY EXCHANGE OF INDIA (MCX)
GOLD AUGUST FUTURE/10 GRAMS	SILVER SEPTEMBER FUTURE/KG
Rs.9,570- Rs.9,880	Rs.17,050 - Rs.18,400
COPPER AUGUST FUTURE	CRUDE OIL JULY FUTURE
Rs.352.60 - Rs.382.90	Rs.3,320 - Rs.3,550
GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS
Gold and silver are having a great week after more than a month. Gold has gained more nearly $26 from the low while silver has gained $88 from the weeks. Gold August future reached a high of $657.00 while silver September future reached a high of $1182.00 before settling lower at $651.20 and $1155.50. There was some volatility after the London PM fixing as silver fell to a low of $1135.00 after its fell below the 100 day MA of $1160.00.   The US dollar has gained after stronger than expected May trade deficit numbers. The deficit came in at $63.8bn, some $500m more than in April, but a little better than market expectations. There was higher aircraft exports by Boeing and other companies and commodity prices also fell in the Month of May. Boeing’s main competitor is Airbus. Airbus has failed to develop new wider bodies aircrafts and is also unable to meet delivery schedules. Now Boeing has a virtual monopoly in transportation aircraft in the global market and aircraft exports from Boeing will only rise in the coming months. Commodity prices including crude oil are at 2006’s low in May and June. US commodity imports in value term will also fall in May and June. US trade deficit will widen from July the effect of which will be known from September onwards. US peak summer driving season has also started in July. The US dollar gains are just for the short term. Long term bearishness for the greenback remains intact. Gold and silver will gain faster as a weaker US dollar increases the carry trade.     Iran will be censured at the United Nations over the next two weeks, diplomats said on yesterday, in the wake of a crisis meeting of foreign ministers from the world’s big powers. Such a move, which could pave the way to sanctions and crude oil prices zooming over $84.00 barrel to $92.00 and gold prices to $735 and silver to $1550.0. Higher crude oil prices would pinch every country and in our view only if US president Bush’s popularity sinks that we will resort to sanctions on Iran followed by armed attack to divert public opinion. Please note that there are US state elections in November. In every report I sound very optimistic on gold and silver prices. We cannot alter the medium to long term trend.   The Bank of Japan’s expected interest rate hike by a quarter of percentage has been factored in by the markets. There could be some intra day correction which should be used as opportunity to go long. Gold and silver still need to close over $640.00 and $1160.00 today else the rally will be short lived.
GOLD
Gold faces resistance at $652.50 and $658.60 with $676.00 as the key resistance. On the lower side $639.40 and $622.60 are the support levels.
SILVER
Silver needs to hold 100 day MA at 1160.00 for $1198 and $1232. On the lower side $1110.00 is the key support and a consolidated below the same will result in losses to $1071.
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prices of specific currencies, precious metals, base metals, or equity indices reflect the views
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-- Posted Thursday, 13 July 2006 | Digg This Article

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