Gold, silver crude oil and other precious metals and base metals pared previous gains yesterday on profit taking after UN decided to send troops to Israel in an effort to end the fighting between Israel and Hezbollah. The US dollar gained after some better than economic numbers. Gold has been rising due to safe haven demand and has been swaying the geopolitical tune. Fundamentals do not justify the current prices due to lack of demand. Gold August future settled at $651.90 while silver September future settled at $1109.00
It’s all depends on crude oil price and geopolitical risk in the short term for gold and silver. Crude oil prices are trading near $75.00 a barrel and the net long positions is either static or rising. Geopolitical risk’s effect only where there is a war like scenario. Terror strikes do not affect gold and silver anymore as markets have got used to it. The fall in gold and silver prices for the rest of the month will give yet another opportunity for long term traders to invest. Before end September there will be very few opportunities to invest in gold and silver for the short term and medium term investors. These have to en cashed by them.
In India MCX a large of numbers traders have been caught long in silver September future between INR 18,000 and INR 18,000.Our view is that if MCX silver September holds INR 16900 – INR 17050 zone there is every possibility of INR 17950. MCX silver September faces strong resistance at INR 17950. MCX Gold August has a strong support at INR 9570 and as long as INR 9570 holds the downside is limited for MCX gold August future.
GOLD
Gold needs to hold $639.40 on closing basis else a test of $610.00 is on the cards. On the higher side $656.00 is the initial resistance with $662.50 and $669.70 as the key resistance levels.
SILVER
Silver needs to hold $1090 and $1070 to prevent a test of $1008. On the higher side silver needs to close over $1066 for two consecutive days to resume its bullish trend.
Happy Profitable Trading
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