It’s just the lack of liquidity that is driving gold and silver lower. As the summer trading comes to an end the traders are booking profits very quickly. The US dollar is immune to all the bad news from the US economy as there is still positive growth and consumer confidence remains firm. Gold December future fell to a low of $628.80 while silver September future fell to a low of $1224.50 in Asian trade.
Gold is being supported by silver and if silver falls, gold will fall more. Silver rose due to some sharp short covering and fell as soon as the short covering demand was over. If crude oil prices fall, gold and silver will also fall but the fall will be temporary. Crude oil prices still has hurricane risk premium and if there are no hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico, the fall in crude oil prices is inevitable unless there is severe supply disruptions from middle east or any part of the world.
Turkey plans to start its first gold exchange (ETF)) traded fund at the end of September. India’s first gold exchange traded fund will start soon. Other countries will also starting gold ETF’s. All the exchange traded funds need gold. At the moment supply is abundant due the selling by German central bank. Demand should pick up next month. Gold inventory levels are at a minimum due to very falling prices. Once gold demand picks up and traders start to increase their gold inventory, prices should start to rise. The fall in gold may last until the first week of September and thereafter gold should rise.
GOLD -- DECEMBER FUTURE
Gold needs to hold $616.80 on closing basis to prevent a slide to $594.60. Initial support stands at $626.80 and $623.20. Resistance is at $634.50 and $639.
SILVER -- SEPTEMBER FUTURE
Silver needs to hold $1207 on closing basis to prevent a slide to $1162 and $1137. There will be sellers over $1250 unless there is a convincing break of $1268. A convincing break of $1268 will result in $1292 and $1320.
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