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Asian Metals Market Update for 29th September, 2006



By: Chintan Karnani, Insignia Consultants


-- Posted Friday, 29 September 2006 | Digg This ArticleDigg It!

GOLD

SILVER

COMEX GOLD DECEMBER FUTURE -- $606.70

COMEX SILVER DECEMBER FUTURE -- $1161.00

 EXPECTED TRADING RANGE

GOLD -- $592.60 -- $624.40

SILVER -- $1152 - $1260.00

COPPER AND CRUDE OIL -- EXPECTED TRADING RANGE

COPPER DECEMBER -- $332.00 - $354.30

NYMEX CRUDE OIL  NOVEMBER  - $60.20 - $66.20

MULTI COMMODITY EXCHANGE OF INDIA (MCX)

GOLD DECEMBER FUTURE/10 GRAMS

SILVER DECEMBER FUTURE/KG

Rs.9,120- Rs.9,420

Rs.17,750 - Rs.19,100

COPPER NOVEMBER FUTURE

CRUDE OIL OCTOBER FUTURE

Rs.342.00 - Rs.362.00

Rs.2,850 - Rs.3000

 

  Gold and silver are rising on the back of renewed hedge fund interest and short positions getting squeezed. Higher crude oil further contributes to rise in prices. Crude oil spiked to $64.00 a barrel on reports that OPEC had agreed an informal production cut. But Edmund Daukoru, Opec’s president, said that even if Opec reached an agreement to cut ahead of the cartel December 14 meeting, it would be difficult logistically to lower supplies before November at the earliest. Demand factors will prevent speculators from too short. The effects of a slowdown in US economy will be felt in the coming months and will be offset by higher demand India, China and other developing nations.

 

There is huge demand of gold in India this festival season. Lower gold and silver prices along with sharp rise in Indian stock markets have certainly boosted demand. According to our estimates gold jewellery demand over the past one week has been so high that  something which has not been witnessed over the past two years. Indian have seen gold prices over INR 10,000 so they are happy with gold prices at INR 9000-INR 9100, hence the increase in demand. If gold prices rise sharply demand will fall marginally.

Gold production at South Africa’s South Deep mine is expected to decline by almost 60 per cent in the second half of the year due to damage caused by a recent fire. Output is forecast to fall to 111,239 troy ounces in the second half of 2006 from 261,558 ounces in the same period last year. Global demand for gold will rise over the coming months and year and unless new mines are discovered, demand pressures will prevent any long term breakdown in gold prices.

 

Natural gas prices were weaker after the release of the latest US weekly inventories data which showed a 77bn cubic feet increase in stocks, slightly below market expectations. The continuing inventory rise means gas in storage is on track to reach 3.3 trillion cubic feet by the end of October, ensuring plentiful supplies even if there is prolonged cold winter weather. In MCX natural gas future, a large number of traders are long at higher levels. MCX natural gas futures are bearish, but should bottom out soon. In the event of any news of a breakdown in diplomatic dialogue with Iran and cold temperatures arrive in US or Europe earlier than expected, natural gas will pare its losses.

 

We begin a new quarter next week and fund manager as well retail investors will start building new positions on their investments. December 2004 belonged to US dollar as it weakened to its record level. December 2005 belong to gold and silver and other precious metals. We will have to wait and watch what December 2006 has in store, however early October moves will definitely give us an indication what is store for gold and silver investors in December.

 

GOLD -- DECEMBER FUTURE

  Gold needs to break $614.40 for $621 and $628. On the lower side the earlier resistance of $599.0 is now the support with $586.0 as the key short term support.

 

SILVER -- DECEMBER FUTURE

  There is buzz of funds liquidation some of the long positions which has resulted in silver’s inability to hedge higher. As long as silver holds $1137 on closing basis downside will be limited. On the higher side $1192 is the initial resistance with $1220 and $1320 as the key short term resistances.

 

 

We Wish All Indian a Very Happy Durga Puja/Dusshera. Have a great holiday weekend.

 

For SMS and Yahoo support please mail at sms@insigniaindia.com

 

 Disclaimer : Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of

prices of specific currencies, precious metals, base metals, or equity indices reflect the views

of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees  have any liability 

for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any

 party  in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies,

errors in, or omissions of Information.

 Prepared By Chintan Karnani. Web Site:www.insigniaindia.com

 


-- Posted Friday, 29 September 2006 | Digg This Article


1080-81, Ugger Sen Street,”Somani Bhawan”
Sita Ram Bazar, New Delhi-110006. India.
Ph: [O] 91-11-30919880 [M] 09811139549
Website: www.insigniaindia.com
Email:





 



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