Gold, silver as well as crude oil rose in Asian trading after Opec decided to cut crude oil production and US prepares a draft on sanctions on Iran to be discussed with the European Union. Gold December future rose to a high of $583 while silver December future rose to a high of $1139. US unemployment rate fell in September which has put an uncertainty over the markets expectations of continued pause in US interest rate. Last week the European Central Bank (ECB) raised interest rates as a preemptive measure to curb inflation. The Fed could be following the footsteps of ECB sooner than later. Markets have factored in a bank of England interest rate hike next month. Inflationary expectations are driving the markets and preventing gold from falling.
Copper pared some of its losses on dwindling global inventories and greater global demand as we near thanksgiving and Christmas. Silver is a precious metal as well as a base metal and is affected by fluctuations in base metals as well precious metal. India has doubled is target for investment in infrastructure to $320 billion by 2012. Creating new infrastructure facilities implies more demand for steel cement as well as copper and base metals. The Indian and Chinese demand will prevent copper and other base metals from a major slide. The current prices of base metals as well as precious metals have an imbedded speculation interest. If there is reduction of speculative interest in commodities, copper and silver could temporarily slide without altering the long term trend.
For the time being geopolitical risks of Iran and North Korea etc are not affecting gold and silver. If however as and when these risk catch the fancy of the markets, it may gold and silver positively. Gold and silver will continue to remain volatile.
GOLD -- DECEMBER FUTURE
A break of $586.50 will result in re test of $600 and $614. On the lower side $574.20 is the initial support with $562.60 as the key short term support.
SILVER -- DECEMBER FUTURE
Silver needs to break $1152 and $1184 for $1220 and $1256. On the lower side $1124 is the initial support with $1105 as the key short term support.
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