NATIONAL COMMODITIES AND DERIVATIVES EXCHANGE (NCDEX)
GOLD DECEMBER FUTURE/10 GRAMS
SILVER DECEMBER FUTURE/KG
Rs.9112- Rs.9,300
Rs.18,800- Rs.19,600
STEEL DECEMBER FUTURE
CRUDE OIL DECEMBER FUTURE
Rs.18200.00 - Rs.19000.00
Rs.2,710 - Rs.2820
GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS
This is Thanksgiving week. Gold has been consolidating in $612 - $630 range. Silver has consolidated in $1250 - $1320 range. Gold, silver and copper december future are expiring next week and the rollover and position squaring and rebuilding should pick up as the month comes to an end. December future has been a good battle between bulls and bears in every metal. Cyclical factors suggest that gold and silver should rise due to higher investment demand. However unless spot gold breaks and holds $636 and euro breaks 1.30 against the US dollar, short term traders will be sellers at higher levels.
Volatility of late has increased in gold, silver and the metals markets. In the beginning of 2006 gold, silver and most of the metals rose as the rise was a surprise for most of the market participants. In the current scenario most of the investors know that gold, silverare in the phase of a long term bull rally due to correction in the overvalued US dollar. This has resulted in every increasing investment in precious metals markets. A few years ago few hedge funds had the power to manipulate gold and silver. Now the scenario has changed as a lot more money is needed to manipulate gold and silver. The second factor is technology. New and cheap technology has resulted in super fast news to the man on the street and a more and more investors have all the news with them before the trading decision. Technology has resulted investors in fund managers spotting new arbitrage opportunities and investing there. Despite the bullish factors in gold and silver, volatility will increase over the next few months and I would not be surprised to see gold rising $50 one week only to fall by $50 the next week. Making and gaining most of the volatility will be the key challenge for the investors over the next six months.
For the week, volumes will dip as the week progresses. Gold will continue to be linked to the US dollar as well as crude oil prices. Silver is a sleeping dragon. Copper and zinc have managed to hold on to their key long term supports and if they are able to hold to the same for the rest of the month we could see new highs over the coming months.
GOLD -- DECEMBER FUTURE
Gold needs to break $632.20 for $639.30 and $657.30. On the lower side $613.90 and $606.60 are the key supports.
SILVER -- DECEMBER FUTURE
Silver needs to break $1335 for further gains to $1430. On the lower side $1256 and $1232 are the support levels.
Happy Profitable Trading
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