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-- Posted Thursday, 30 November 2006 | Digg This Article

GOLD	SILVER
COMEX GOLD FEBRUARY FUTURE -- $643.30	COMEX SILVER MARCH FUTURE -- $1380.0
EXPECTED TRADING RANGE
GOLD -- $639.80 -- $655.10	SILVER -- $1355 - $1420.00
COPPER AND CRUDE OIL -- EXPECTED TRADING RANGE
COPPER MARCH -- $310.60 - $329.40	NYMEX CRUDE OIL  DECEMBER - $60.25 - $63.20
NATIONAL COMMODITIES AND DERIVATIVES EXCHANGE (NCDEX)
GOLD DECEMBER FUTURE/10 GRAMS	SILVER DECEMBER FUTURE/KG
Rs.9220- Rs.9,380	Rs.19,750- Rs.20,400
STEEL DECEMBER FUTURE	CRUDE OIL DECEMBER FUTURE
Rs.18600.00 - Rs.19000.00	Rs.2,752 - Rs.2860
GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS
Gold and silver are consolidating at the moment and after a week of gains. Nervousness among the traders and december future expiry today has resulted in profit taking at higher levels. US third quarter GDP printed strongly at 2.2%, the core PCE, was revised down from 2.3% to 2.2%. We have mentioned earlier that the lagging effects of lower crude prices in September to November period will be positive for US economic growth and the same is being reflected in the economic statistics. The only cause of short term concern for the US economy is the housing market. New home sales dropped 3.2% in the month of October, but the report contained underlying strength as prices increased 1.9 %. The housing market still remains very vulnerable and buy should form a bottom over the next few months. As a result in US as well as global economic uncertainties gold and silver will continue to rise. Even the Indian central bank intends to increase it gold exchange reserves as the US dollar depreciates.   China's opening of retail banking to foreign institutions in December may hasten another big shift in its financial sector, the rise of foreigners as major players in its booming money and bond markets.   Foreign banks expect a surge in their yuan assets when they offer yuan accounts and services to Chinese individuals, and they aim to make money from those assets by trading bonds. Markets estimate foreign banks could see their China bond business, which tripled in the first 10 months of 2006, more than double next year,  and continue growing at such rates in subsequent years. As and when new investment avenues come up globally the pace of rise on gold and silver will reduce as we all know that liquidity is the key short term driver for most of the financial markets. Gold may not rise $50 a month as seen between December 2005 and April 2006.   Even in the commodities, the commodities which have exchange traded funds (ETF’s) have risen more than commodities which do not have ETF. Recently platinum reached historical highs on expectations of ETF being launched. In April 2006 ETF news drove silver to $15.30. Steel is not rising as much as other base metals. However a word of caution here is that gold as a number of ETF’s in different countries. The same will be other commodities soon. As more and more ETF open in different commodities and different countries volatility will increase and long term rise will be slow and steady.
GOLD -- FEBRUARY FUTURE
Gold is trading in $638.20-$648.20 range and needs to break either of them for $667 and $632 as the case may be.
SILVER -- MARCH FUTURE
Silver has a support at $1355 and a consolidated fall below $1355 will result in $1325 and $1290. Resistance is at $1402 and $1425 with $1480 as the key resistance.
Happy Profitable Trading
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-- Posted Thursday, 30 November 2006 | Digg This Article

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