Yesterday’s clobbering of US dollar suggest that gold is headed for $700 and higher this month and silver to $1650-$1700 unless economic numbers from US suggest that the US economy can avert a recession. The drop in Chicago PMI gave early warning signals that the US economy could soon move into recession and the markets took the same seriously.
November is over and in December most of the fund managers position their portfolio’s on the basis of next four months. History is repeating itself and like 2005 gold and silver will continue to rise over the next four months this March 2007. This time around it will not be a one way traffic as volatility will increase but the trend is surely bullish and gold at $570 will soon be a part of history. Unless new and secure alternative investment avenues come up investment in gold, silver and the metal’s market will continue to rise which will prevent short term sharp declines in bullion. India’s July to September, 2006 GDP growth was at a record 9.20% which suggest that Indian demand for precious metals as well as base metals will rise.
All in bullishness in gold and silver is subject to technical break out. Please dump the Relative strength Index (RSI) into the dustbin as overbrought and oversold conditions will continue for day and technical analysts call for a correction may not happen due to momentum factors. This is momentum market and if one trades against the momentum all the stop losses will be hit. Once again all eyes will be on the US dollar and oil prices, there could be bit of profit taking but the upward momentum is so strong that traders will prefer to go long than short.
GOLD -- FEBRUARY FUTURE
Gold needs to break $668 for $700 and $730. On the lower side as long as 641.20 holds on closing basis the downside is limited.
SILVER -- MARCH FUTURE
Silver breaks $1435 then a rise to $1530 and $1667 is on the cards. On the lower side $1355 is the key support.
Happy Profitable Trading
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