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-- Posted Thursday, 14 December 2006 | Digg This Article
GOLD | SILVER | COMEX GOLD FEBRUARY FUTURE -- $632.30 | COMEX SILVER MARCH FUTURE -- $1393.00 | EXPECTED TRADING RANGE | GOLD -- $627.80 -- $643.30 | SILVER -- $1366 - $1435.00 | COPPER AND CRUDE OIL -- EXPECTED TRADING RANGE | COPPER MARCH -- $298.60 - $313.80 | NYMEX CRUDE OIL DECEMBER - $59.90 - $63.60 | MULTI COMMODITY EXCHANGE OF INDIA (MCX) | GOLD FEBRUARY FUTURE/10 GRAMS | SILVER MARCH FUTURE/KG | 9150 - 9370 | Rs.20,400 - Rs.21,200 | COPPER FEBRUARY FUTURE | CRUDE OIL JANUARY FUTURE | Rs.303.00 - Rs.314.00 | Rs.2,760 - Rs.2880 | NATIONAL COMMODITIES AND DERIVATIVES EXCHANGE (NCDEX) | GOLD JANURRY FUTURE/10 GRAMS | SILVER JANUARY FUTURE/KG | Rs.9135- Rs.9,300 | Rs.20,200- Rs.20,775 | STEEL JANUARY FUTURE | CRUDE OIL JANUARY FUTURE | Rs.18688.00 - Rs.18956.00 | Rs.2,766 - Rs.2854.00 | | As we had mentioned in our earlier reports the lagging effects of lower crude oil will prevent the US economy from a slide and US economic numbers telling us the same story. US trade deficit had declined and now the retail sales jumped sharply in November as shoppers went on a spending spree that will reinforce the Federal Reserve's view that the cooling housing market has not hurt the rest of the economy. It may be cyclical but the US economy will not boomerang in one go and so will the US dollar not slide overnight. Gold and silver are singing the US dollar and crude oil tune. But there’s a catch here. US economic growth will prevent crude oil prices from falling which will prevent gold and silver from slide. The US dollar, crude oil, equity markets, bullion markets are all inter related due to liquidity factors. Any significant movement in one market will affect other markets as well. Global economic growth has reached a turning point with a slowdown now clearly under way, led by the United States, the World Bank. In its annual Global Economic Prospects report World Bank, said global growth was expected to reach 5.1 percent this year, slow to 4.5 percent in 2007, then rise slightly to 4.6 percent in 2008. It said developing countries were in the driving seat, with growth reaching 7 percent in 2006, twice as fast as developed countries, then falling to 6.4 percent in 2007 and 6.1 percent in 2008. In comparison, developed economies would expand by 3.1 percent this year, slow to 2.4 percent in 2007 and strengthen to 2.8 percent in 2008. The report said a soft economic landing remains likely, but warned that a cooling U.S. housing market could spark a sharper-than-expected downturn and even a recession, which could have a major impact on developing nations. Gold and silver will benefit in the long term as and when global economy slows as the gold is the best investment in a slowdown and also the best hedge against a falling US dollar. However there could be sharp wild swings in gold and silver which is a part of long term bullishness. It’s just not metals even agricultural commodities have started generating investor interest. There has been a record interest in agricultural commodity futures in 2006 which is set to grow even further in 2007. Barclays Capital that another $50 billion could flow into the commodities sector as a whole by 2008. Market sources estimate $80-$100 billion is currently invested in commodities. Wheat, soybean, palm oil, maize etc have all risen sharply in 2006. Gold and silver will outperform agri – commodities, in term of annualized returns as higher agri prices is inflationary and hurts everybody. | GOLD -- FEBRUARY FUTURE | Gold needs to hold $617.40 to prevent a slide to $603.20 On the higher unless there is a daily close over $643.70 the upside will be limited. Only a consolidated break of $643.70 will result in $655.80. | SILVER -- MARCH FUTURE | Silver needs to hold $1354 to prevent further losses to $1305 and $1234. On the higher there is a strong resistance between $1415 and $1435. A consolidated break of $1435 will result in $1490 as the next target. | | Happy Profitable Trading | | For SMS and Yahoo support please mail at sms@insigniaindia.com | | Disclaimer : Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of | prices of specific currencies, precious metals, base metals, or equity indices reflect the views | of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees have any liability | for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any | party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, | errors in, or omissions of Information. |
-- Posted Thursday, 14 December 2006 | Digg This Article
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