Whenever metals fall, base metals are the first to get knocked down. The correction in a gold, silver as well as crude oil prices is a very healthy towards the medium term bullish. If gold continues to rise endlessly, then the risk for a big correction increases simultaneously.There is no doubt that carry traders will continue to dictate commodity price movement unless there are clear indications that Bank of Japan will raise interest rates more than once. A single interest rate hike will not result in unwinding of carry traders as other central banks (other than the Fed) may raise interest rates.
Copper fell more than 1%, weighed down by another huge jump in the metal's stocks. LME inventories rose by 425 tonnes to 216,050tonnes, double that of what they were last year and about eight times higher than they were in July 2005. Copper and other base metals are showing signals to a short term bottom being formed over the next two to three weeks. Chinese New year celebrations could keep Chinese demand out for a week. But when Chinese companies replenish their stocks copper and other base metals could rise. In India, Multi Commodities Exchange (MCX), investors are still holding their copper long positions near INR 300.00 and are averaging the same on dips. Copper bears will try to force copper down so that these investors book their losses and they enter.
The European Union agreed to implement U.N. sanctions on Iran while holding a door open to fresh talks on defusing a standoff over what Western powers suspect is a covert Iranian bid to make nuclear bombs. Iranian risk premiums will increase in bullion and crude oil prices, which will prevent major slide in them.
GOLD -- APRIL FUTURE
Gold needs to break $676 - $680 zone for $700, $730. On the lower side $656.90 is the key support.
SILVER -- MARCH FUTURE
Silver once again failed to break $1400 and needs to break the same for an attempt at $1458 and $1500. On the lower side $1337 and $1317 are the support levels.
Happy Profitable Trading
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