European central bank (ECB) toned down its degree of hawkishness after raising interest rates by a quarter of a percentage. ECB chief Trichet indicated that interest rates are currently “moderate” rather than “low” and confirmed that the word vigilance was not used in his prepared statement. The ECB would like to reduce the volatility in currency markets so that equities markets rise. Short term performance of the global equity markets is dependent on carry trade and this is an example of the central bankers promoting carry trade. The yen weakened after the resumption of carry trade. Japanese economy is dependent on a weaker yen and that at lower levels bank of Japan could intervene overtly or covertly. Net effect of commodity markets is that they will continue to rise but with greater volatility.
Russia and China have raised objections to nearly every Western proposal for new U.N. sanctions against Iran over its nuclear ambitions except a ban on arms exports, according to a working paper. In an effort to break the logjam, senior foreign policy officials from the United States, Britain, France, Germany, Russia and China held another telephone conference yesterday, followed by a meeting of U.N. ambassadors. The new resolution is a follow-up to one adopted by the Security Council on Dec. 23 that imposed trade sanctions on sensitive nuclear materials and technology and froze assets of key Iranians individuals, groups and businesses. Iran news will not affect crude oil, gold and silver in a big way unless there is a war. It will only prevent short term traders from going too short.
Gold and silver have stabilized but nervousness is still there. Investors are edgy and are booking profits quickly. Precious metals as well as base metals are slowly rising and last weeks wound should be healed soon as technical support levels have been holding well.
GOLD -- APRIL FUTURE
Gold needs breaks $659 for further gains to $662 and $672. On the lower side $643.80 and $634.10 are the key intra day support levels.
SILVER -- MAYFUTURE
Silver targets $1412 and $1480 if it is able to hold $1310. On the lower side $1280 and 1255 are the key intra day support levels.
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