In India more and more mutual funds have started applying for the launch of Gold Exchange Traded Fund (GETF). The latest being Reliance mutual fund, other mutual funds could also be in foray.GETF’s in India are an excellent way of diversification of investment specially for the Indian retail investor where there is lack of investment avenues (apart form equity, treasuries and real estate). According to our estimates, Gold Incremental demand from India will rise between 15 tonnes -20 tonnes per anum due to GETF. This rise in demand is apart from rise in normal Indian demand. This will result in gold trading with firm bias. Investors who have invested in equity based mutual funds will soon start diversifying into GETF. Indian retail investors who invest in GETF should invest for a period of 12 months to 18 months for higher returns. Short term investors who invest for a period of 2 months for 3 months should stay away. Investing in GETF is not a substitute to future trading. Investing in GETF is a replacement to buying physical gold from the market and hoarding in bank lockers.
Copper is showing no signs of stopping as it rises slowly and steadily. Higher demand from China and falling global inventories is the culprit.Aluminum has disappointed, but should see a good rise in after May. Aluminum demand should rise further as is the best substitute for copper. Nickel has potential to rise further, but I prefer to be day trader for nickel and would rather go short on any signs of change in momentum. Zinc is all about spread play.
Gold and silver are trading in range. The performance of the US economy and equity markets will affect intra day price movement apart from crude oil, foreign exchange markets and geopolitical risk.
GOLD -- APRIL FUTURE
Gold needs to break $668 - $670 zone for further gains to $676.30 and $682.60. On the lower side only a fall below $655 and $651.30 will result in a fall to $643.50 and $635.20.
SILVER -- MAYFUTURE
Silver needs to break $1369 for further gains to $1397. On the lower side only a daily close below $1305 will result in further losses to $1270.
Happy Profitable Trading
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Prepared By Chintan Karnani. Web Site:www.insigniaindia.com
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