Markets are being dictated by geopolitical worries, which is supporting precious metals. Iran is a risk at the moment. It’s very difficult to comment where the Iran situation will lead whether from “good to worse” or “bad to good”. These uncertainties will prevent traders from keeping a net short position at the end of the day. They will either square off their long positions or go long. The Bush administration has a control over Iraqi oil and in future US companies will have a control over the same. The pretext of Iran have nuclear weapons is just another way of trying to get future control over Iran’s huge energy resources. In this world of every rising energy demand, any country which controls energy can indirectly rule the world. But Iran is different from Iraq. Iran will not be as easy to control as Iraq and this is one of the reasons why US and their allies are delaying their plans to control Iran. Mr. Bush still has remaining twenty one months as the president of USA. Anything can happen. Gold and silver are the biggest beneficiary due to Iran and will continue to gain due to Middle East risk.
The US dollar has gained marginally after Fed Chairman Bernanke said monetary policy is still aimed at combating inflation even though risks to economic growth are multiplying. Overall US dollar will continue to trade with a weaker bias in the April too June quarter euro possibly nearing 1.40 against the US dollar. The end June Fed meeting will be the key for the US dollar for the June to December period. Gold April future are expiring tomorrow and rollover is yet to be completed. It will be more of spread trade till tomorrow for gold. A lot our MCX broker clients informed us that in March that their overall trading volumes fell. There is a liquidity pressures in India due to fiscal year close on 31st March. MCX volumes in metals should rise from next week as liquidity situation eases.
GOLD -- APRIL FUTURE
Gold needs to break and close over $670.60 for $680.40. On the lower side $663.60 is the initial support with $657 as the key intra day support.
SILVER -- MAYFUTURE
Silver needs to break $1360 and $1369 for further gains to $1397. On the lower side only a daily close below $1312 will result in further losses to $1270.
Happy Profitable Trading
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Prepared By Chintan Karnani. Web Site:www.insigniaindia.com
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