Yesterdays fall was not s surprise. It was bound to happen sooner than later after gold, silver and copper failed to edge higher over the past one week. Statistics show that between mid April and mid May gold and silver slide at least once and one should have been prepared for the same. Unwinding of sterling carry trades as it fell below 1.20 mark started the fall. At 1.20 a dollar, UK traders had immense advantage of arbitraging. When sterling started falling below 1.20, traders started booking profits in their trades which resulted in technical break down in metals. The options markets had it own role to play. Ever rising prices in gold and copper resulted in hedging demand by options traders and once the short covering was over the fall started. Copper and silver May future are expiring on Monday. Short sellers were rolling over their positions.
Base metals and precious metals have fallen despite overall weakness of the US dollar and firm equity markets. If equity markets fall next week and there is close below key technical supports today then one should expect further losses in the early part of next week. At lower levels, physical demand and investment demand will rise from India andChina which will support prices. A bottom should be formed either today or early next week.
GOLD -- JUNE FUTURE
Gold needs to close over $672.30 to prevent further losses to $663.30 and $653.80. Initial resistance is at $683.20 and further at $690.50, $697.20.
SILVER -- JULYFUTURE
Silver needs to close over $1315 today to prevent losses to $1300 and $1235. On the higher side $1367 and $1401 are the resistance zones.
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