Metals and energy markets were unaffected by the fall in global stock markets. The US dollar is trading with a weaker bias even with the yen. The current fall in global stock markets is just a correction at the moment which if it continues into next week could result in short term bear trend else expect new high to be created in US and European equity indices. Physical demand for gold and silver should rise from the second half of next week as the Hindu marriage season re-starts from next week. Indian gold demand will prevent prices from a major fall. There are apprehensions that Indian gold demand will fall if prices will rise further. We have a contrarian view and Indian gold demand to rise till end July (after excluding cyclical factors).
Crude oil prices are firm as cyclone Gonu hits Gulf of Oman and has the possibility of moving into Iran. The cyclone could disrupt oil shipments from the Middle East. These are all effects of global warming. Cyclone related fears will prevent traders from going too short over the next few months. Higher crude oil prices always supports gold.
The next two days will be very interesting for gold, silver and base metals so far they have managed to hold on to their key technical supports and are in a bullish trend. However failure to edge higher will result in losses next week. If the bank of England surprises and raises interest rates then gold and silver will rise further.
GOLD -- AUGUST FUTURE
Gold needs to break $678.50-$680 for $684.50 and $688.70. On the lower side a consolidated fall below $671.40 will result in $663.50.
SILVER -- JULYFUTURE
Silver needs to break and hold $1374-for $1385 and $1404. On the lower side $1354 is the initial support with $1339 and $1319 as the key support.
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