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-- Posted Monday, 25 June 2007 | Digg This Article

EXPECTED TRADING RANGE
GOLD AUGUST  -- $646.00 -- $660.20	SILVER  SEPT   -- $1292.50 - $1344.00
COPPER AND CRUDE OIL -- EXPECTED TRADING RANGE
COPPER SEPT   -- $331.00.00 - $344.90	NYMEX CRUDE OIL  JULY    - $67.60 - $69.72
GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS
I hope the Fed meeting does not turn to be damn squib this week. I am cautious whenever certain events get over hyped. Bernanke & Co has never surprised the markets so far. The Fed will not raise interest rates this week has been factored in by the markets. The only surprise that could come is Fed changes in US growth and inflation. Nearly fourty percent of the markets are betting on December interest rate hike. In our view the Fed will adopt the middle of road path and will not change the phrase of accompanying statement and would rather wait for future statistics on US economy.    Gordon Brown takes over as UK prime minister this week. George Bush’s best friend and ally Tony Blair moves away from the scene. Britain role ion Iraq war has brought criticism to Mr.Blair in his own country. The new UK prime minister may or may not support Mr.Bush in all his overtures. The key test for Mr.Brown will be handling of the Iran issue and if US uses force against Iran then whether Brown will lend his full support or a conditional one remains to be seen.    The US dollar has already weakened against all major currencies except the yen. Yen has been weakening against the euro and US dollar. The big question is how long will the ECB and the Fed tolerate a weaker yen. Yen can target 128.70 and 135 if it breaks and holds 125.20. Eurozone and US exports are hurt due to a strong currency. The current world currency market scenario of a falling US dollar and falling yen makes we believe that if this lasts beyond September, 2007, there could be protectionist measures  in place by various countries. Who benefits out f even hints of protectionism? Gold and only gold.   June is going to be over. We had storm Gonu in the Persian Gulf, which resulted in crude oil prices nearing $70 a barrel. The Gulf of Mexico peak hurricane season is in July to September quarter. In 2006 nothing happened and thereafter crude oil tested $50.0 in January. Crude oil without a rita is at $69 what happens if there is another category 4 or a category 5 hurricane, certainly crude will edge past $80 this year. Higher crude oil prices will result in firm gold and silver prices.
SILVER -- SEPTEMBER FUTURE
Silver is Not out of the woods and failure to edge past $1342 will result ins fall to $1277 and $1244.
Happy Profitable Trading
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-- Posted Monday, 25 June 2007 | Digg This Article

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