-- Posted Thursday, 18 September 2008 | Digg This Article
| Source: GoldSeek.com
GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS/FUNDAMENTAL FACTOR
The rise in gold also reflects that the investor is not an idiot. The federal reserve bailing out AIG has not gone down well with the investors. Central banks tried to create a mirage of global financial stability which has now vanished. Reality bites and it is biting everyone. Morgan Stanley is considering merger or sale. Llyods TSB is said to reach an agreement to buy UK rival HBOS. This is the second round effects of the collapse of US housing markets which started in July, 2007. Financial services firms and banks have tried their best to suppress their shaky health in 2008. However suppression of facts could not last longer and central banks are shivering. Gold and other precious metals are benefiting.
Gold’s over $100 rise in less then twenty four hours will be remembered in history. I have never seen such a big jump in my small career. It’s all happening under the leadership of US president George W Bush. Mr. Bush will now be remembered in history as the most economically damaging US president whose sole interest was to attack oil and natural resource rich nations on the pretext of terrorism and nuclear warheads.
Commodities in general have benefited due to alternate investment yesterday. Unless global equity investment sentiment becomes positive commodities will remain firm. However base metals could get battered if the risk of a sustained global recession increases.
INDIAN RUPEE UPDATE
RBI intervention will prevent the rupee from gains. A weaker US dollar will also support the rupee from any major weakness. Yesterday the rupee weakened to 46.72 only to close lower at 46.34. The dying of some of the big global financial services firm will negatively affect Indian outsourcing industry. Today the rupee has to fall below 45.80 for another round of selling to 45.22. The rupee will weaken as and when RBI intervention is not there. 47.12 and 47.56 are the resistances in the event of weakness. Forward premiums will trade with a softer bias. In the last quarter of 2007 emerging market equities (including India) benefited as alternate investment. We do not expect 2007 to be repeated.
WHAT NEXT
Central banks will try and calm the panic situation in the markets. As and when the current nervousness gets over gold and other safe haven assets will fall. Gold has bottomed out for the rest of 2008. Silver and platinum we need to wait for a few more days as they are precious cum base metals.
DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS |
| LTP | YTD % | PREV. DAY HIGH | PREV. DAY LOW | 50 DAY MA | 100 DAY MA | 200 DAY MA |
| | | | | | | |
COMEX | | | | | | |
GOLD | 880.2 | 1.65 | 872.9 | 777.5 | 862.60 | 878.98 | 891.52 |
SILVER | 1235 | -19.70 | 1217 | 1043.5 | 1494.49 | 1605.58 | 1655.33 |
COPPER | 312.5 | 2.21 | 312 | 307 | 342.89 | 358.57 | 354.97 |
CRUDE OIL | 97.42 | 5.99 | 97.61 | 91.15 | 117.45 | 123.94 | 111.75 |
NAT GAS | 8.067 | 1.01 | 7.989 | 7.27 | 8.74 | 10.44 | 9.59 |
PLATINUM | 1155 | 0.00 | 1137.5 | 1066 | 1542.83 | 1793.21 | 1815.26 |
PALLADIUM | 246 | -37.40 | 250 | 224.3 | 328.97 | 388.20 | 411.15 |
NYMEX CRUDE OIL (1ST CONTRACT)
In the short term as long as crude oil holds $88 it will target the 200 day moving average of $111.75.
THIS IS JUST AN EXCERPT OF THE DAILY REPORT.
Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. Prepared By Chintan Karnani. Website www.insigniaconsultants.in
-- Posted Thursday, 18 September 2008 | Digg This Article | Source: GoldSeek.com
