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International Forecaster February, 2006 (#2) - Gold, Silver, Economy + More

By: Bob Chapman, The International Forecaster



-- Posted Thursday, 16 March 2006 | Digg This ArticleDigg It!

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                                                                        *****

 

US MARKETS

            We are n the verge of the greatest inflationary binge in history. Our perceived wealth is the manifestation of one of the greatest misallocation of created assets and as such its existence will have profound ramifications. Our society, world society, has inflated expectations based upon financial leverage and useless credit. Our asset inflation and bubbles have created unsound distortions driven by unsound incentives. Due to this our capitalistic system is in extreme danger. Speculative market dynamics have fueled our economy for many years in spite of our knowledge that previous journeys into this realm have ended in financial tears and at deplorable social cost. All the economic revisionism of today won’t make the past and our human mistakes go away.

 

            Today, like in the late 1920s, there is no sound money and credit. We live in a fiat financial structure underpinned with fiat currencies. This unsound monetary backdrop, like before, has created asset inflation, resource misallocations, speculation that will eventually bring about destabilization, unbridled non-productive debt expansion, wealth redistribution expedited by offshoring and outsourcing, a form of international socialization and an economic system now riddled with holes. This condition was not only created by the Fed and other central banks, governmental fiscal profligacy, but also a new factor the advent of electronic money, so to speak outside our historic system. Unchecked non-productive credit expansion is at the heart of contemporary monetary inflation. Inflation that is officially understated by more than 50% in a system devised to deceive not only the public but professionals as well.

 

            Our bubble is the result of credit inflation based upon the expansion of asset and securities-based finance. A system that is fundamentally unsound. A system based on the value of speculative assets is inherently unstable and leads to booms, which we have recently witnessed, and busts like we saw in the stock market of 2000 and 2001, and we are about to experience in real estate.

 

            We are in the age of Wall Street finance – the engine of global leveraged speculation. The Street is ablely assisted by the Working Group on Financial Markets, also known as the Plunge Protection Team and the Fed, via the repo pool. We are in an era where Wall Street’s excesses are moderated and controlled by corporatists in both government and at the Fed. They are protecting Wall Street’s leverage mechanisms by interceding in all markets. They have kept the US stock market in a narrow range for almost three years to keep it from correcting. A 35% or 50% market correction would destroy their game. They are assisted as well by other central banks. Thus, we have Wall Street and the Fed governing monetary issuance, which gives them free reign to create wealth. This is assisted by a so-called derivative structure. Every time the Fed announces what it is going to do it does so slowly to allow Wall Street to take its profits. They did that with interest rates over the past two years and they have begun that process with the yen carry-trade. It is a system designed to protect the wealth of Wall Street and the very rich to the detriment of the American public. In almost two years Wall Street profits are up 80%. They knew well ahead of time what the plan was. Slowly higher interest rates and massive money and credit expansion simultaneously. The slow elevation of interest rates allow Wall street and its clients to adjust their interest rate arbitrages in financial instruments and in their carry-trade positions. Instead of normalizing, Wall Street ratcheted up its asset inflation mechanism to garner even greater profits. This is why we have not had a tightening in liquidity beyond what the Fed and other central banks have done. At this very moment, despite the condition of our financial system, and the performance of gold and silver in a rigged market, they are still expanding the use of over-issuance and augmenting even more credit inflation. These acts guarantee hyperinflation. They, of course, were aided and abetted by the Fed’s Sir Alan Greenspan in lowering short-term rates providing the wherewithal and incentive for the Street to boost leveraged bond bets and as a result bond yields fell. This allowed the boom to continue and the guaranteed profits to flow to the street. Unfortunately, slowing down the runaway train is not working. In order to keep the system from deflating, M3 and credit had to be increased. To terminate or slow it would guarantee a financial collapse thus, the high-powered game continues and any sane person knows the results are going to be disastrous.  Understanding the problem is simple and the solution is, there is no way out. Wall Street understands what they are facing and they’ll play their hand until the bitter end hoping they survive. We are witnessing one of the greatest destabilizing speculative periods of all time. We are going to reap the consequences of unsound money and credit. Your only investment alternative is gold and silver related assets. This is the only mechanism for protecting your wealth.

 

 

Despite the Sixth Amendment’s guarantee of public trials, nearly all records are being kept secret for more than 5,000 defendants who completed their journey through the federal courts over the last three years. Most of these defendants are cooperating government witnesses, but the secrecy surrounding their records prevents the public from knowing details of their plea bargains with the government. The government is shielding gang members, multiple murderers, drug dealers and terrorists from our learning whether their testimony against confederates won them drastically reduced prison sentences or freedom. When you try to access the case in the US District Court’s computerized record system, the computer will falsely reply, “no such case” – rather than acknowledging that it is a sealed case. The cases of 5,116 defendants completed in 2003, 2004 and 2005 remain sealed.

 

The data shows a sharp increase in secret case files over time as the Bush administration’s well documented reliance of secrecy in the executive branch has crept into the federal courts through the war on drugs, anti-terrorism efforts, and other criminal matters. As of 2003, 1.1% remained secret, in 2004, 2.2% and 2005, 2.7%. Among newly charged defendants, 10.9% in 2003 were sealed as were 12.6% in 2005. You can commit six or seven murders and be on the street for cooperating. Thus, in almost 13% of all criminal cases our government doesn’t want you to know what they gave away. Another question is are these criminals now operating for George and the neocons?

 

The NYSE is now public and it will use their newfound funds for absorbing the remainder of the world’s stock exchanges in order to solidify financial control of all investment. This is financial power greater than any in history. It will allow access to all the assets of investors. It will identify where their wealth resides and it will allow the UN or a world government to tax trades, profits, and currencies or even to implement a world tax on investment. This will give the elitists total control, not only of the banking system, but of the securities market as well.

 

We envisioned such a result when the Congress passed HR10, the Banking Modernization Act, which repealed the 1933 Glass-Steagal Act, which separated commercial banking from investment banking. In a move similar to the creation of the Federal Reserve in 1913, it allows foreign banks, insurance companies and brokerage companies to buy their American counterparts. The internationalization of banking and brokerage are controlled by the Fed and the NYSE. This is not market-based democracy – it is corporatist fascist control. This financial clout now available to the NYSE will also allow it to go on a privatization binge like the world has never seen - privatization of state owned assets throughout the second and third worlds.  There are water, gas and electric utilities, plus telephone companies, banks, railroads and airlines to be force listed on the new international NYSE. The NYSE will be used to harmonize and integrate economies as we are pushed toward a One-World monetary unit. The big question is will they get their world currency by 2010 to 2012, or will they be forced to revert to a gold standard and start over again as they have done many times before? Make way for the NYSE – the global stock exchange.

 

GOLD, SILVER, PLATINUM, PALLADIUM AND DIAMONDS

 

            Gold consumption in Saudi Arabia and UAE rose by 13% and 10% respectively last year. Egyptian consumption rose by 2% to reach 76 tons as UAE bought 106 tons and Saudi Arabia 160 tons. Higher prices have not deterred jewelry purchases.

 

            On Monday, the gold suppression cartel sent us a message. They don’t want gold breaking out to a new high. The attack came early, fast and furious. Gold closed down $10.60 to $555.20 and silver fell $0.20 to $9.98. These beasts are not going down without a fight. This is just another rear guard action. What we do next is counter-attack and make them pay for our discomfort. Desperation comes in many guises. This attack was as obvious as the last 10 or 20 attacks. Desperate people do desperate things.

 

            The word in the professional ranks is that Goldman Sachs demanded that the 55 year old Tocom change their rules to accommodate their newest gold suppression cartel member GS. You can bet the orders came straight from the top illuminists. They obviously didn’t like our keeping track of their short position and exposing it to the public. Finally one of the elitists’ watchwords transparencies is dead.

 

 

            If you’d bought gold bullion when the first ETF was announced in 2002, you would have paid $330 an ounce. The GLD-ETF has had to buy $6 billion in gold, which is 300 tons at an average price of $500, or about two months’ gold production.

 

            In 2005, Newmont mined three million ounces of gold from the Yanacocha Mine in Peru, which was 213,000 ounces more than in 2004. The 2006 production prediction is estimated at 2.4 to 2.6 million ounces and in 2007 1.6 to 2.5 million ounces. Newmont has to find another 200,000 to 300,000 just to match 2005.

 

            A silver price tracker fund, or ETF, is expected to be launched in the London Stock Exchange in April. It has approval from the UK’s Financial Services Authorities. The proposed silver fund will not be physically backed by the underlying commodity; it is a pure bookkeeping operation. We predict this one will end in a major scandal. It was only created to suppress silver prices.

 

            Asian nations held $2.3 trillion of reserves at the end of 2004, or ten times those of the G-7 nations. Presently China’s reserves are $818 billion. As we pointed out in the last issue, China is increasing its reserves of gold by about 650 tons this year. As a percentage of reserves gold makes up 1%. The European countries claim the following gold percentage of reserves: the US 68%; Germany 52%; France 59%; Italy 59%; Switzerland 35%; Japan 1%; the ECB 15%; the Netherlands 52%; Spain 43%; Portugal 58%; Russia 4%; India 4%; Venezuela 14%; the UK 10%; Austria 37%; Lebanon 29%; Belgium 27%; Australia 3% and Canada 0%. These are official numbers and we do not believe any of them.

 

            There are $23.6 trillion in bonds outstanding of which $8.2 trillion is public debt. US stocks are worth $35 trillion. If just 1% of that money was converted into gold that would be $350 billion or 19,800 tons of gold. That would be 13% of all the gold in existence and 8 times the annual production of mined gold.

 

            Those who need to pare down their dollar position the most before major devaluation starts are: Japan with $681.6 billion in US Treasuries; China $247.6; the UK $187.1; Caribbean banking centers $113.5; Taiwan $76.1; Germany $64.4; OPEC $63.8; Korea $61.4 and Canada $51.7 billion.

 

            Gold mining production has been flat to lower for 8 years and that gap will widen over the next 5-7 years.

 

            South African gold output fell 13.5% in volume terms while overall minerals production declined 7.7% in January y-o-y. Production of non-gold minerals fell by 6.5% in January.

 

            In December y-o-y gold sales fell 0.1%.

 

            South African total mine output for the three months ended January 2006 decreased by 2.8% compared with the previous three months. Total mining production for the period decreased by 3.9%.

 

            We are sure we’ll have more on this, but regulators in Japan suspended some JPM operations for 15 days. They allege that the company manipulated prices of Topex futures transactions. Does that surprise you?

 

            Both in February and March just before the balance of trade figures were released gold was hit hard. Those were not coincidences.

 

            For the foreseeable future, there seems little chance that this situation will change. As we reported recently, two giants, Newmont and Barrick, said mine production is declining. Anglo Gold Ashanti is also suffering production declines. Three years ago we wrote in detail how Barrick was high-grading their properties. That is taking out the richest ore first. We were right again and now you see the results, which is falling production. In the last 25 years there has been no technological breakthroughs in gold and silver mining. Due to exploration in the 1980s, there were four discoveries with over five million ounces of gold each year in the 1990s. In the past seven years there have only been two. The supply demand fundamentals do not get any better than that. This is what happens when the prices of gold and silver are artificially depressed. Industry simply cannot respond to demand.

 

            Every currency, particularly the major currencies, have broken down versus gold. Money is the most important thing in society and when its value is threatened people buy gold because it’s the ultimate store of value and method of payment. Gold is the only form of money that cannot be debased by the authorities that print paper fiat currency. A rising gold price is a barometer of currency debasement. It is the only financial medium of exchange that is not someone else’s liability. Gold is the ultimate form of real money. To remember the peak in gold prices at 21 years old, you’d have to be 46 years old. To remember the gold standard, you need to be at least 55 years old. The vast majority of people currently working in the financial sector, even in senior positions, are younger than this. They do not know the history of gold. They do not know what real money is. They do not know that fiat currencies always fail.

 

Today, central banks do not guarantee convertibility of fiat currency into gold. Gold has its own exchange rate versus all other currencies. It also has its own interest rate in the form of gold lease rates. That is the rate central banks charge for lending gold. That is usually 1/2%. The central banks use this lending not to acquire interest, but to suppress gold prices because the borrowers, usually bullion banks, immediately sell the gold to exact a higher return in fiat currency. In times of financial crisis, gold is the soundest money and cannot be debased. That is why it is the ultimate money.

 

            Zimbabwe’s government plans to acquire 51% ownership of the country’s mines during the next seven years. Thirteen mines have closed over the past six years. The mining sector earned $626 million in 2005 or 44% of Zim’s total foreign currency revenues.

 

                                  THE INTERNATIONAL FORECASTER

MARCH 2006 (#2) Vol. 10 No. 3-2

P. O. Box 510518, Punta Gorda, FL 33951-0518

An international financial, economic, political and social commentary.

Published and Edited by: Bob Chapman

E-mail Address

International_forecaster@yahoo.com

 

CHECK OUT OUR WEBSITE

www.theinternationalforecaster.com

 

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-- Posted Thursday, 16 March 2006 | Digg This Article



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