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-- Posted Thursday, 22 July 2004 | Digg This Article
METALS: OVERNIGHT CHANGE to 4:07 AM:London Gold Fix $395.00 -$6.10 LME COPPER STOCKS 91,925 mt tons -400 tons COMEX Gold stocks 4.471 ml Unchanged Comex Silver stocks 115.1 ml +606,311 oz. OVERNIGHT ACTION: Asian traders were still light sellers in the wake of Greenspan views. GOLD: The gold looks to come into the session under pressure as the lingering impact of Greenspan was still being seen in Asia overnight. Apparently the gold market is very concerned with the prospect of rising rates and is also undermined by the mere prospect of progression in the US recovery. With the Dollar continuing to hold most of its recent gains, we see October gold having the capacity to slide to near term consolidation support of $393.3. Australian gold producer Newcrest pegged their 4th quarter production at 235,652 ounces but the market really isn't in a position to track physical supply fundamentals. It is interesting to note that October gold broke through the trend line support off the May through present up trend channel. That up trend channel now becomes a critical pivot point at $402.4 basis the October contract. SILVER: A minor rise in exchange stocks shouldn't be that big of an issue but with the bias in silver already pointing down, almost anything could facilitate more downside. Near term downside targeting is seen down at $6.28 but a more pronounced slide to $6.225 would not be shocking when one considers that all the metals were under pressure yesterday. To turn off the slightly negative bias, the September silver will have to manage a rise back above $6.45. METALS TECHNICAL OUTLOOK 7/22/2004 #P-METALS 07/22/04: SILVER (SEP): The swing indicator gave a moderately negative reading with the close below the 1st support number. Initial support for silver is at 630.8 and below there at 622.1 with resistance likely at 644.7 and 651.3. The market's close below the 9-day moving average is an indication the short-term trend remains negative. Daily stochastics turning lower from overbought levels is bearish and will tend to reinforce a downside break especially if near-term support is penetrated. The next downside target is 622.1. Short-term indicators are on the defensive. Consider selling an intraday bounce. GOLD (AUG): Support for gold today comes in near 390.98, while resistance is pegged at 404.78. Momentum studies trending lower at mid-range should accelerate a move lower if support levels are taken out. The next downside objective is now at 390.98. The market is in a bearish position with the close below the 2nd swing support number. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day moving average.
-- Posted Thursday, 22 July 2004 | Digg This Article
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