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-- Posted Wednesday, 18 August 2004 | Digg This Article
METALS: OVERNIGHT CHANGE to 3:45 AM: London Gold Fix $403.20, +$1.75 LME COPPER STOCKS 111,100 mt tons +30,925 tones COMEX Gold stocks 4.709 ml Unchanged COMEX Silver stocks 112.19 ml +1,064 OVERNIGHT ACTION: A firmer Dollar over night and profit taking pressured gold over night in both the Asian and European markets, but there appeared to be buying interest at lower prices, which limited losses in gold. GOLD: Gold's rally appears to be a more broad based than just off of currency movements since gold was able to trade higher in the face of a firmer US Dollar Tuesday. A mixed bag of economic news with a decline in the CPI rekindling fears of deflation pressured the gold market early in Tuesday's session, but fund buying above $400 in the October contract came in to take price higher. With oil prices returning to recent highs, worldwide stagflation concerns look to be one of the factors attracting investors to precious metals. Gains in the US stock market and flight to safety buying tied to the prospect of the large Russian oil company going bankrupt and ongoing terrorist concerns could also be adding to bullish sentiment in gold. Physical gold buying from India (the world's largest gold consumers) could also underpin gold prices as August through November begins India's marriage season during the festival of lights where gold jewelry is traditionally given as gifts. With the latest COT report showing the net long position held by the funds significantly below record highs seen earlier this year, this sector of the market appears to have enough buying power to push gold prices higher. With terrorism concerns on high alert, we doubt traders will be willing to take Oct gold back under $399 or Dec gold under $400, especially ahead of the Republican convention. However, without another downdraft in the Dollar or flight to safety surprise, the market should run into resistance at $410.
SILVER: We thought Dec silver should have been able to give a stronger performance Tuesday given gains in housing construction and industrial production. However, the market did hold up fairly well in the face of a firm Dollar. Positive market sentiment and a bullish technical setup should eventually firm Dec silver back to $7, but with a lack of fresh news currency movements and some profit taking could make for a sideways to lower trade this session. Support for Dec silver comes in at $6.66 then $6.60. METALS TECHNICAL OUTLOOK 8/18/2004 #P-METALS 8/18/2004: SILVER (SEP): The market has a slightly positive tilt with the close over the swing pivot. Initial support for silver is at 666.8 and below there at 660.1 with resistance likely at 685.1 and 679.3. A positive signal for trend short-term was given on a close over the 9-bar moving average. Rising stochastics at overbought levels warrant some caution for bulls. The next upside objective is 685.1. The market could take on a defensive posture with the daily closing price reversal down. GOLD (OCT): Support for gold today comes in near 399.43, while resistance is pegged at 410.03. Daily stochastics have risen into overbought territory, which will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The near-term upside target is at 410.03. The close over the pivot swing is a somewhat positive setup. The close above the 9-day moving average is a positive short-term indicator for trend. There are multitudes of ways in which one can participate in a bullish or bearish perspective in the metals complex. Mining shares as well as purchasing bullion are just a few. Another investment of choice is through futures and/ or options on futures contracts. If you have traded, then you will be able to appreciate the brokerage service that Nell Sloane and Group can offer. If you have not, and wish to learn more about it, please feel free to contact her staff so that they can forward you some educational literature for your review. Please contact Nell Sloane or a member of her team at 800 238 2610. ***This report includes information from sources believed to be reliable and accurate as of the date of this publication, but no independent verification has been made and we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This report should not be construed as a request to engage in any transaction involving the purchase or sale of a futures contract and/or commodity option thereon. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts or commodity options can be substantial, and investors should carefully consider the inherent risks of such an investment in light of their financial condition. Any reproduction or retransmission of this report without the express written consent of Hartfield Management, Inc. is strictly prohibited.
-- Posted Wednesday, 18 August 2004 | Digg This Article
***This report includes information from sources believed to be reliable and accurate as of the date of this publication, but no independent verification has been made and we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This report should not be construed as a request to engage in any transaction involving the purchase or sale of a futures contract and/or commodity option thereon. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts or commodity options can be substantial, and investors should carefully consider the inherent risks of such an investment in light of their financial condition. Any reproduction or retransmission of this report without the express written consent of Hartfield Management, Inc. is strictly prohibited.
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