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-- Posted Wednesday, 15 December 2004 | Digg This Article
METALS: OVERNIGHT CHANGE to 3:45 AM: London Gold Fix $437.80 -$0.80 LME COPPER STOCKS 55,425 metric tons +575 tons COMEX Gold stocks 5.577 ml Unchanged COMEX SILVER stocks 103.8 ml +604,658 oz OVERNIGHT ACTION: Minor gold gains in Asia despite the recent US interest rate hike. GOLD:While the US gold market appears to have a positive bias this morning, there would seem to be moderate resistance at $441.6. On the other hand, a rather significant decline in the US Dollar overnight has violated a series of support points on the charts and that could whip up bullish interest in gold. In fact, a decline below 81.86 in the March Dollar Index could be enough to send February gold prices up to $443. However, holding back gold prices this morning are reports that Chinese gold prices were lower overnight because of bank selling. However, since the selling in China was reported to be simple year end profit taking and not some structural desire to liquidate reserves we doubt that the selling news will have a sustained impact on prices. We continue to see a positive correlation between gold and the equity market and with the merger mania expected to continue, gold should continue to get a light lift from outside markets. Near term critical support in February gold is seen today at $435.7 and it would appear that the gold market has consolidated enough to balance its recently overbought technical status and that alone might signal an upside breakout ahead. SILVER: The silver market has also consolidated and re-injected confidence following the massive early December slide and that should give the market a base from which it can work higher. However, considering the current pattern of higher lows, it would not be a good thing for March silver to track back below $6.68. Unfortunately the silver market isn't seeing much help from the physical market and isn't seeing that much optimism arising from the macro economic outlook. In the near term, we suspect that the $6.75 level will manage to hold the market up but for prices to attempt to regain the critical pivot point at $7.00, the gold market will have to provide more definitive positive leadership. METALS TECHNICAL OUTLOOK 12/15/04 SILVER (MAR):Daily stochastics declining into oversold territory suggest the selling may be drying up soon. The market's close below the 9-day moving average is an indication the short-term trend remains negative. It is a slightly negative indicator that the close was lower than the pivot swing number. The next downside objective is 660.5. With a reading under 30, the 9-day RSI is approaching oversold levels. The next area of resistance is around 683.0 and 690.5, while 1st support hits today at 668.1 and below there at 660.5. GOLD (FEB): The close below the 40-day moving average is an indication the longer-term trend has turned down. Daily stochastics declining into oversold territory suggest the selling may be drying up soon. The close below the 9-day moving average is a negative short-term indicator for trend. The swing indicator gave a moderately negative reading with the close below the 1st support number. The next downside objective is now at 434.5. The next area of resistance is around 438.9 and 440.9, while 1st support hits today at 435.7 and below there at 434.5.
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-- Posted Wednesday, 15 December 2004 | Digg This Article
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