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-- Posted Thursday, 23 December 2004 | Digg This Article
**All Markets will be closed on Friday, December 24th. There will be no Daily Comments that day...Happy Holidays** METALS: OVERNIGHT CHANGE to 3:45 AM: London Gold Fix $442.40 -$.30 LME COPPER STOCKS 51,125 metric tons -875 tons COMEX Gold stocks 5.644 ml +59,985 oz COMEX SILVER stocks 104.0 ml Unchanged OVERNIGHT ACTION: Minor gold gains in Asia partially off overnight Dollar weakness. GOLD: With renewed Dollar weakness we suspect that buyers in gold will be inspired again. However, in order to really spark renewed buying interest, the Dollar might have to fall below 81.68 and possibly even 81.49. Chinese gold prices were higher overnight with Dow Jones news suggesting that the buying was the result of physical interest and that is somewhat a fresh wrinkle for the bull camp. While Newmont Mining claims it hasn't violated environmental standards in Indonesia, the company admitted to releasing tons of mercury from a mine and it is now possible there will be a backlash from the situation. In short, the cost to mine in Indonesia could be set to rise, or it is also possible that some mining might be halted, or slowed due to new regulations. While we suspect that ranges will be pretty tight into the early close and extended holiday ahead, the performance in the Dollar overnight certainly increases the chance of some more lively early action in the gold market. In fact, for the Dollar to leave the current week under pressure is extremely disappointing when one considers the upgrade in US GDP, the decent fiscal restraint talk and especially seeing Dollar weakness in the face of significant declines in the Pound and Canadian. In other words, the Dollar has recently had several reasons to bounce and couldn't. Therefore, the gold bulls would seem to have an edge again and it would seem like the $440 level is going to solidify. Near term resistance in February gold comes in at $445.6, with the top of the up trend channel seen up at $448. SILVER: The silver chart continues to an upward tilt with the market favoring the upper quarter of the December consolidation pattern. So far the consolidation pattern has produced a series of higher lows but hasn't managed to produce higher highs. We suspect that gold will lend a little positive support this morning and that silver might be able to test the top of the consolidation up at $6.97. Trend line support in March silver comes in today at $6.80. It is a little disappointing that silver failed to respond positively to the US equity market rally, as that suggests silver is mostly watching the gold, which is mostly watching the direction of the Dollar.
METALS TECHNICAL OUTLOOK 12/23/04 SILVER (MAR):Daily stochastics declining into oversold territory suggest the selling may be drying up soon. The close under the 18-day moving average indicates the longer-term trend could be turning down. The market's close below the 1st swing support number suggests a moderately negative setup for today. The next downside objective is 674.2. The next area of resistance is around 689.3 and 697.1, while 1st support hits today at 677.8 and below there at 674.2. GOLD (FEB): Stochastics are at mid-range but trending higher, which should reinforce a move higher if resistance levels are taken out. The close below the 18-day moving average is an indication the longer-term trend has turned down. The market's close below the 1st swing support number suggests a moderately negative setup for today. The next upside target is 445.2. The next area of resistance is around 443.2 and 445.2, while 1st support hits today at 439.6 and below there at 438.1.
To those of you who have emailed or commented on the daily commentary regarding price manipulation: our daily comments are strictly to provide our customers and subscribers with news, which may influence the markets marginally on a day-to-day basis. This is not the forum to address price manipulation. There are multitudes of ways in which one can participate in a bullish or bearish perspective in the metals complex. Mining shares as well as purchasing bullion are just a few. Another investment of choice is through futures and/ or options on futures contracts. If you have traded, then you will be able to appreciate the brokerage service that Nell Sloane and Group can offer. If you have not, and wish to learn more about it, please feel free to contact her staff so that they can forward you some educational literature for your review. Please contact Nell Sloane or a member of her team at 800 238 2610.
-- Posted Thursday, 23 December 2004 | Digg This Article
***This report includes information from sources believed to be reliable and accurate as of the date of this publication, but no independent verification has been made and we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This report should not be construed as a request to engage in any transaction involving the purchase or sale of a futures contract and/or commodity option thereon. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts or commodity options can be substantial, and investors should carefully consider the inherent risks of such an investment in light of their financial condition. Any reproduction or retransmission of this report without the express written consent of Hartfield Management, Inc. is strictly prohibited.
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