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-- Posted Friday, 18 March 2005 | Digg This Article
METALS: OVERNIGHT CHANGES THROUGH 3:45 AM: GOLD -1.40, SILVER -3.70
London Gold Fix $436.65 -$6.00 LME COPPER STOCKS 48,750 metric tons -350 tons COMEX Gold stocks 5.915 ml oz Unchanged COMEX SILVER stocks 101.8 ml +199,415 oz OVERNIGHT ACTION: International players extended the bearish tilt Thursday U.S. action. GOLD: With the overnight trade maintaining the negative tilt seen in the US action the prior day and the US Dollar higher it would seem like the gold market will generally remain under pressure today. In fact it would almost seem like the Dollar managed to ignore a large portion of the bearish fundamentals thrown its way this week and that is disconcerting for the bull camp in gold. Furthermore, with the June gold failing to hold above a series of chart support levels and the small spec and fund long recently found to be long 143,000 contracts, there is certainly the potential for additional stop loss selling. In fact, given the ramping up of recession/deflation fears, off the sharp rise in oil prices this week, it is understandable that both precious metals and base metals are under some selling pressure. Near term downside targeting in the June gold comes in at $437.8 but a continuation of fundamentals that project future economic slowing, without sinking the Dollar in the process, could mean an even bigger slide down to $435. Hopefully those that took our suggestion to buy June gold at $444 also secured the short 465 call and long 430 put protection we suggested with that recommendation. We would hold the option wings until the market displays the ability to build consolidation support above the $435 level! SILVER: Given that silver is displaying slightly more downside vulnerability than gold, and therefore silver is potentially going to be a little more sensitive to macro economic slowing than the gold market, we would not be surprised to see May silver fall to $7.25 today and even lower in the event that concern for global growth escalates even further. Fortunately for silver, it really hasn t seen that much physical demand buying in the month of March and that could mitigate the near term selling pressure. Trend line support in the May silver off the February low, would suggest that May could slide to $7.14 without really damaging the overall up trend designation. Like gold, silver might take the afternoon COT report as a slight negative into the opening on Monday and therefore traders should not be surprised to see some late weakness today. METALS TECHNICAL OUTLOOK 3/18/2005 SILVER (MAY) 03/18/2005: Stochastics trending lower at midrange will tend to reinforce a move lower especially if support levels are taken out. The major trend has turned down with the cross over back below the 18-day moving average. The market tilt is slightly negative with the close under the pivot. The next downside target is 731.4. The next area of resistance is around 744.7 and 747.4, while 1st support hits today at 736.8 and below there at 731.4. GOLD (APR) 03/18/2005: Stochastics trending lower at midrange will tend to reinforce a move lower especially if support levels are taken out. The cross over and close above the 18-day moving average is an indication the longer-term trend has turned positive. The close below the 2nd swing support number puts the market on the defensive. The next downside target is 434.3. The next area of resistance is around 441.8 and 445.2, while 1st support hits today at 436.4 and below there at 434.3.
To those of you who have emailed or commented on the daily commentary regarding price manipulation: our daily comments are strictly to provide our customers and subscribers with news, which may influence the markets marginally on a day-to-day basis. This is not the forum to address price manipulation. There are multitudes of ways in which one can participate in a bullish or bearish perspective in the metals complex. Mining shares as well as purchasing bullion are just a few. Another investment of choice is through futures and/ or options on futures contracts. If you have traded, then you will be able to appreciate the brokerage service that Nell Sloane and Group can offer. If you have not, and wish to learn more about it, please feel free to contact her staff so that they can forward you some educational literature for your review. Please contact Nell Sloane or a member of her team at 800 238 2610.
-- Posted Friday, 18 March 2005 | Digg This Article
***This report includes information from sources believed to be reliable and accurate as of the date of this publication, but no independent verification has been made and we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This report should not be construed as a request to engage in any transaction involving the purchase or sale of a futures contract and/or commodity option thereon. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts or commodity options can be substantial, and investors should carefully consider the inherent risks of such an investment in light of their financial condition. Any reproduction or retransmission of this report without the express written consent of Hartfield Management, Inc. is strictly prohibited.
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