|
-- Posted Tuesday, 7 February 2006 | Digg This Article
METALS: OVERNIGHT CHANGES THROUGH 4:00 AM: GOLD -2.70, SILVER -5.80
London Gold Fix $568.25,-$1.50 Unch LME COPPER STOCKS 100,675 m tns, +100 COMEX GOLD stks 7.319 ml oz -195 COMEX SILVER stks 125.6 ml oz UNCH OVERNIGHT ACTION: Prices eased on profit taking, lower crude oil price. GOLD: The gold market has been consolidating since making new 25-year highs last Thursday. It gained a little bit of support yesterday over the Iran nuclear issue and the protest over the political cartoons portraying the prophet Mohammed, but it failed to mark any significant advance, despite the return of Chinese traders after last week's Lunar New Years holidays. US dollar gains have been a limiting factor, and they got a further push yesterday from comments by the Dallas Fed president that reinforced expectations for another interest rate hike. Overnight the dollar eased slightly, losing ground to the Japanese yen on speculation that the Bank of Japan may tighten, but it held steady against other currencies and continues to look strong. Comments out of China overnight reinforced their hopes for a diplomatic settlement to the Iranian standoff and seemed to back away from referring the issue to the Security Council after the March 6th deadline for Iran's response. Iran yesterday seemed to leave door open for further negotiations, despite their threatening response to the IAEA decision. Not surprisingly, higher gold prices are encouraging more mining activity. Rangold, an African mining concern, expects output to increase 27% in 2006 after jumping 54% in 2005. The protests in the Middle East over the political cartoons seem to be growing every day, and the hotbed appears to be Iran. If the issue escalates, gold may see some more buying today. However, gold does appear to be losing some of its upside momentum with the sideways action over the past week. Key support levels for April gold come in at 567.60 and 562.60, last week's low. SILVER: Like gold, silver appears to be losing its momentum, and it seems to react less from the Iranian nuclear standoff than gold does. If March silver takes out last Wednesday's low at 9.680, look for it to trade back to 9.50 or possibly the top of the early Jan consolidation at 9.355. Fund activity has quieted down, and last week's easing of the non-commercial net long could be a bearish indicator if it means a selling trend is developing. METALS TECHNICAL OUTLOOK 2/7/2006 COMEX SILVER (MAR) 02/07/2006: The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. Stochastics turning bearish at overbought levels will tend to support lower prices if support levels are broken. The cross over and close above the 18-day moving average is an indication the longer-term trend has turned positive. The daily closing price reversal down puts the market on the defensive. It is a slightly negative indicator that the close was under the swing pivot. The next downside target is 961.2. The next area of resistance is around 984.3 and 995.2, while 1st support hits today at 967.4 and below there at 961.2. COMEX GOLD (APR) 02/07/2006: Daily stochastics turning lower from overbought levels is bearish and will tend to reinforce a downside break especially if near term support is penetrated. The market now above the 18-day moving average suggests the longer-term trend has turned up. With the close higher than the pivot swing number, the market is in a slightly bullish posture. The next downside objective is now at 569.2. The next area of resistance is around 577.1 and 580.3, while 1st support hits today at 571.5 and below there at 569.2.
To those of you who have emailed or commented on the daily commentary regarding price manipulation: our daily comments are strictly to provide our customers and subscribers with news, which may influence the markets marginally on a day-to-day basis. This is not the forum to address price manipulation.
There are multitudes of ways in which one can participate in a bullish or bearish perspective in the metals complex. Mining shares as well as purchasing bullion are just a few. Another investment of choice is through futures and/ or options on futures contracts. If you have traded, then you will be able to appreciate the brokerage service that Nell Sloane and Group can offer. If you have not, and wish to learn more about it, please feel free to contact her staff so that they can forward you some educational literature for your review. Please contact Nell Sloane or a member of her team at 800 238 2610.
-- Posted Tuesday, 7 February 2006 | Digg This Article
***This report includes information from sources believed to be reliable and accurate as of the date of this publication, but no independent verification has been made and we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This report should not be construed as a request to engage in any transaction involving the purchase or sale of a futures contract and/or commodity option thereon. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts or commodity options can be substantial, and investors should carefully consider the inherent risks of such an investment in light of their financial condition. Any reproduction or retransmission of this report without the express written consent of Hartfield Management, Inc. is strictly prohibited.
Previous Articles by Nell Sloane
|
