|
-- Posted Thursday, 9 February 2006 | Digg This Article
METALS: OVERNIGHT CHANGES THROUGH 4:00 AM: GOLD +7.50, SILVER +12.50
London Gold Fix $559 +$10.25 LME COPPER STOCKS 99,200 m tns, -1250 COMEX GOLD stks 7.377 ml oz +60,719 COMEX SILVER stks 125.5 ml oz UNCH OVERNIGHT ACTION: The market made strong gains overnight on fund buying and a security scare late Wednesday in Washington DC. GOLD: The gold market rebounded overnight after falling to its lowest level in almost three weeks yesterday. The market found strong buying interest by the funds but also on news that a suspected nerve agent forced the evacuation of the US Senate Office Building Wednesday evening. However, gold held its gains overnight even though the vapor that caused the alarm tested harmless. The bounce extended to other precious metals as well. This market will probably continue to be quite volatile. In Asia, there are concerns that TOCOM may raise their trading margins, as they did last December, which could force some liquidation. There were comments in the press overnight that investor and jeweler interest was still somewhat timid, which is not surprising given the magnitude of Tuesday's sell off. The fact that gold held its gains so strongly overnight even after the situation at the Senate Office Building ended without incident indicates that there was more involved than flight to quality issues, and that ought to be encouraging to the bulls. Minor changes in the dollar and crude oil overnight had little bearing on the metals. Given that this market seems to be able to dredge up fresh buying interest in the wake of concentrated selling, it makes sense to recommend a buy breaks strategy. However, since one can't rule out a $50 per ounce break, traders might be well advised to utilize options as a protective force in conjunction with a long futures position. SILVER: Silver also experienced a sharp recovery overnight that coincided with the incident at the Senate Office Building but also came on the heels of a strong technical close yesterday. We expect volatility to remain quite high for awhile, but also view Tuesday's sharp declines as a technical correction on an overbought market. March silver more or less held support yesterday at the top of the January consolidation and managed to close higher on the day and could be on the way back to the contract highs at 9.95. Look for first resistance in March silver at the Feb 1 low of 9.68. METALS TECHNICAL OUTLOOK 2/9/2006 COMEX SILVER (MAR) 02/09/2006: Momentum studies trending lower at mid-range could accelerate a price break if support levels are broken. The cross over and close above the 18-day moving average indicates the longer-term trend has turned up. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat bullish. The market tilt is slightly negative with the close under the pivot. The next downside target is now at 920.8. The next area of resistance is around 954.5 and 962.8, while 1st support hits today at 933.5 and below there at 920.8. COMEX GOLD (APR) 02/09/2006: Negative momentum studies in the neutral zone will tend to reinforce lower price action. The major trend has turned down with the cross over back below the 18-day moving average. The market's close below the pivot swing number is a mildly negative setup. The next downside objective is 545.3. The next area of resistance is around 557.7 and 561.0, while 1st support hits today at 549.9 and below there at 545.3.
To those of you who have emailed or commented on the daily commentary regarding price manipulation: our daily comments are strictly to provide our customers and subscribers with news, which may influence the markets marginally on a day-to-day basis. This is not the forum to address price manipulation.
There are multitudes of ways in which one can participate in a bullish or bearish perspective in the metals complex. Mining shares as well as purchasing bullion are just a few. Another investment of choice is through futures and/ or options on futures contracts. If you have traded, then you will be able to appreciate the brokerage service that Nell Sloane and Group can offer. If you have not, and wish to learn more about it, please feel free to contact her staff so that they can forward you some educational literature for your review. Please contact Nell Sloane or a member of her team at 800 238 2610.
-- Posted Thursday, 9 February 2006 | Digg This Article
***This report includes information from sources believed to be reliable and accurate as of the date of this publication, but no independent verification has been made and we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This report should not be construed as a request to engage in any transaction involving the purchase or sale of a futures contract and/or commodity option thereon. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts or commodity options can be substantial, and investors should carefully consider the inherent risks of such an investment in light of their financial condition. Any reproduction or retransmission of this report without the express written consent of Hartfield Management, Inc. is strictly prohibited.
Previous Articles by Nell Sloane
|
