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-- Posted Monday, 13 February 2006 | Digg This Article
METALS: OVERNIGHT CHANGE to 4:00 AM: London Gold Fix $546.60 -$12.15 LME COPPER STKS 99,175 ml tns +3,050 tons COMEX GOLD stks 7.377 ml oz -10,329 COMEX SILVER stks 125.5 ml oz UNCH OVERNIGHT ACTION: All metals saw pressure overnight off the Dollar and tech failures. www.nsfutures.com GOLD: The gold market made a negative chart trade overnight and with Chinese and Asian markets simply adding into the poor US close from Friday, we suspect that a downward probe is ahead. We would expect buyers to surface for the metal but given the relative proximity of today's weakness, to the early February washout in gold prices, it would seem like the bears are garnering an upper hand. Fortunately for the bull camp, the February 7th Commitment of Traders with Options report showed the Gold Non-Commercial position to be net long only 129,303 contracts, after a decline of 11,531 contracts on the week, with the Non-reportable position net long only 30,588 contracts, after a decline of 2,380 contracts. In other words, the recent washout in prices continued to mitigate the overbought condition of gold and that should leave the gold market less vulnerable to a major sustained technical washout. Just to add to the pressure in gold this morning, the Dollar has managed an upside breakout on the charts and appears to be headed toward the 91.00 level and that could inspire currency related longs in gold to liquidate under the early pressure this morning. Near term downside targeting in April gold is seen at $545.2 but a slide to $540 can't be ruled out. Those looking to get short this market for a short-term trade should probably expect the market to show periodic violent bottoming action! The path of least resistance is down but the up trend would not appear to be ending for good. SILVER: Like the gold market, silver appears to be a liquidation posture this morning. In addition to failing at several critical support points on the charts, the silver market is also being buffeted by a slightly less than optimistic macro economic outlook. We also expect that silver is seeing some pressure from the rising Dollar and with the market also showing significant weakness last week, the bear camp might have a bigger edge today than many might have expected. The February 7th Commitment of Traders with Options report showed the Silver Non-Commercial position to be net long 49,463 contracts, down 4,042 contracts on the week, while the Non-reportable position was net long 23,978 contracts, up 1,713 contracts for the week. Therefore, the silver market remained net spec long enough contracts to justify a sustained correction early this week. In the near term, the March silver appears to be poised to slide to the $9.00 level and may temporarily fall to even lower support of $8.85. Commitment of Traders with Options - Metals - 1/31/2006 NON-COMMERCIAL COMMERCIAL NON-REPORTABLE NET POS NET CH NET POS NET CH NET POS NET CH Copper 1,015 -1,661 -5,890 -368 4,876 2,031 Gold 140,834 -1,003 -173,802 3,355 32,968 -2,352 Palladium 6,431 1,141 -9,959 -1,494 3,528 353 Platinum 6,658 285 -8,114 -484 1,456 199 Silver 53,505 -2,861 -75,770 2,560 22,265 301 METALS TECHNICAL OUTLOOK 2/13/2006 COMEX SILVER (MAR) 02/13/2006: Momentum studies trending lower at mid-range could accelerate a price break if support levels are broken. The major trend has turned down with the cross over back below the 18-day moving average. There could be some early pressure today given the market's negative setup with the close below the 2nd swing support. The next downside target is 909.1. The next area of resistance is around 954.0 and 973.0, while 1st support hits today at 922.1 and below that at 909.1. COMEX GOLD (APR) 02/13/2006: Momentum studies trending lower at mid-range could accelerate a price break if support levels are broken. The close under the 18-day moving average indicates the longer-term trend could be turning down. There could be some early pressure today given the market's negative setup with the close below the 2nd swing support. The next downside target is now at 541.4. The next area of resistance is around 560.4 and 569.0, while 1st support hits today at 546.6 and below that at 541.4.
-- Posted Monday, 13 February 2006 | Digg This Article
***This report includes information from sources believed to be reliable and accurate as of the date of this publication, but no independent verification has been made and we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This report should not be construed as a request to engage in any transaction involving the purchase or sale of a futures contract and/or commodity option thereon. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts or commodity options can be substantial, and investors should carefully consider the inherent risks of such an investment in light of their financial condition. Any reproduction or retransmission of this report without the express written consent of Hartfield Management, Inc. is strictly prohibited.
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