|
-- Posted Thursday, 23 February 2006 | Digg This Article
METALS: OVERNIGHT CHANGES THROUGH 4:00 AM: GOLD -1.00, SILVER -1.50
London Gold Fix $552.50 -$0.50 LME COPPER STKS 109,400 ml tns +850 tons
COMEX GOLD stks 7.523 ml oz -1,608 oz COMEX SILVER stks 127.4 ml oz +713,414 oz OVERNIGHT ACTION: European gold traded lower pressured by weak oil prices and a lack of a bullish catalyst. GOLD: Gold prices traded lower over night as the market seems to lack a bullish catalyst right now to spark fresh buying interest. So far, the gold market is not garnering much support from a weaker Dollar, but if the Euro can gather upside momentum, then April gold may see some support later in the session. Since the headline CPI report Wednesday wasn't hot enough to rekindle inflation anxiety and with energy prices dropping sharply on over supply concerns, April gold may have a tough time climbing back over and sustaining a move above the $560 level right now. The gold market might have been lucky to hold together during the action Wednesday, as the World Gold Council predicted a 15% decline in 4th quarter jewelry demand and at the same time predicted that 4th quarter supply rose by 10%. In other words, the supply and demand equation certainly worsened with the WGC suggesting that high volatility and high prices discouraged demand and pulled out some supply. The gold bulls have to be somewhat discouraged, especially since the US CPI report failed to foster inflationary fears and there has been increasing talk of producer hedge selling. April gold has yet to see much support from news that Freeport-McMoran suspended operations at its copper and gold mine in Indonesia on Wednesday due to labor disputes. While gold production losses at the mine are estimated at around 9,000 ounces per day, if the situation is resolved soon it should have a very limited impact on gold. With March options expiring today, gold prices may remain within a price stranglehold between the $550 and $560 range in the April contract. However, with a lull in the economic report schedule, we would think that a new geopolitical risk may have to emerge to support gold into a higher price range this week as we feel the market is becoming more vulnerable to profit taking. SILVER: May silver continues to see solid buying on price brakes with the $9.50 level now looking like formidable support. However, with the latest COT report with options showing both large and small traders were holding a sizable net long positions as of Feb 14th, May silver may have a tough time pushing through resistance between the $9.75 to $9.80 price range. Also, sizable gains in COMEX silver warehouse stocks over the last three trading sessions raise a cautionary flag and if the trend continues, it may start to be a discouraging factor for the bulls. To receive an e-mailed chart of COMEX silver warehouse stocks call 312-786-4450 or go to our website at www.futures-research.com for a free trial to view this chart in our Research Center. METALS TECHNICAL OUTLOOK 2/23/2006 COMEX SILVER (MAR) 02/23/2006: Stochastics are at mid-range but trending higher, which should reinforce a move higher if resistance levels are taken out. The cross over and close above the 18-day moving average is an indication the longer-term trend has turned positive. The daily closing price reversal up is a positive indicator that could support higher prices. It is a mildly bullish indicator that the market closed over the pivot swing number. The next upside target is 976.3. The next area of resistance is around 968.0 and 976.3, while 1st support hits today at 947.1 and below there at 934.3. COMEX GOLD (APR) 02/23/2006: Positive momentum studies in the neutral zone will tend to reinforce higher price action. The market back below the 18-day moving average suggests the longer-term trend could be turning down. With the close higher than the pivot swing number, the market is in a slightly bullish posture. The near-term upside target is at 562.8. The next area of resistance is around 560.4 and 562.8, while 1st support hits today at 552.8 and below there at 547.5.
To those of you who have emailed or commented on the daily commentary regarding price manipulation: our daily comments are strictly to provide our customers and subscribers with news, which may influence the markets marginally on a day-to-day basis. This is not the forum to address price manipulation.
There are multitudes of ways in which one can participate in a bullish or bearish perspective in the metals complex. Mining shares as well as purchasing bullion are just a few. Another investment of choice is through futures and/ or options on futures contracts. If you have traded, then you will be able to appreciate the brokerage service that Nell Sloane and Group can offer. If you have not, and wish to learn more about it, please feel free to contact her staff so that they can forward you some educational literature for your review. Please contact Nell Sloane or a member of her team at 800 238 2610.
-- Posted Thursday, 23 February 2006 | Digg This Article
***This report includes information from sources believed to be reliable and accurate as of the date of this publication, but no independent verification has been made and we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This report should not be construed as a request to engage in any transaction involving the purchase or sale of a futures contract and/or commodity option thereon. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts or commodity options can be substantial, and investors should carefully consider the inherent risks of such an investment in light of their financial condition. Any reproduction or retransmission of this report without the express written consent of Hartfield Management, Inc. is strictly prohibited.
Previous Articles by Nell Sloane
|
