|
-- Posted Tuesday, 14 March 2006 | Digg This Article
METALS: OVERNIGHT CHANGES THROUGH 4:00 AM: GOLD -2.00, SILVER -0.70
London Gold Fix $545.25 Unch LME COPPER STKS 133,975 ml tns +1,400 tns
COMEX GOLD stks 7.532 ml oz -16,075 oz COMEX SILVER stks 126.7 ml oz -586,078 oz OVERNIGHT ACTION: Slightly weaker action in Singapore with Shanghai gold closing mixed. GOLD: The gold market was certainly lifted by what appeared to be a broad based metals rally on Monday but it was no coincidence that the rally took place in the face of a Dollar slide and an impressive energy market rally. In other words, gold appears to need some outside help to bring physical buyers back into the fray. With Chinese retail sales up 12.4 and 12.5% in the first two months of 2006, we would have expected the metals to gain a lift in prices this morning, but the potentially supportive Chinese news is apparently more than offset by the fact that the German ZEW Index overnight was much softer than expected and by lower 2006 energy demand projections from the International Energy Agency. In other words, the gold market continues to be a physical commodity market that either needs clear evidence of strong future demand, or it needs conditions that are conducive to inflation. With oil prices dampened by the IEA forecasts overnight and the market slightly overbought in the wake of the bounce yesterday, it wouldn't be surprising to see a little back and fill on the charts today. We do think that the sharp compacted rally yesterday balances the trade and takes some power away from the bear camp, but unless the energy complex leads the way higher, April gold might be remain mired in a $540 to $548 trading range. We might note that consolidative action feeds right into our recent Short April call/Long May Call calendar spread theme. SILVER: In comparison to the gold market, the silver market has a much more impressive chart setup and silver will probably be less concerned with the upcoming action in the US Dollar. With Apex silver announcing overnight that they would have to delay their 2005 annual report and will probably be announcing an annual loss of $67 million, one would not think that the company is poised to ramp up silver production. In the near term, we would expect May silver to outperform gold and to make a bid at the $10.22 level. Top of the up trend channel in May silver is seen at $10.43, but in order to get to that level today, we suspect that the US scheduled numbers will have to be strong, or energy prices will have to recover from early weakness. Bottom of the up trend channel in the May silver today is $9.82. METALS TECHNICAL OUTLOOK 3/14/2006 COMEX SILVER (MAY) 03/14/2006: Stochastics turning bearish at overbought levels will tend to support lower prices if support levels are broken. The market's close above the 9-day moving average suggests the short-term trend remains positive. The market's close above the 2nd swing resistance number is a bullish indication. The next downside objective is 985.8. The next area of resistance is around 1028.0 and 1034.7, while 1st support hits today at 1003.5 and below there at 985.8. COMEX GOLD (APR) 03/14/2006: Momentum studies trending lower at mid-range should accelerate a move lower if support levels are taken out. The close below the 9-day moving average is a negative short-term indicator for trend. The gap upmove on the day session chart is a bullish indicator for trend. Market positioning is positive with the close over the 1st swing resistance. The next downside objective is now at 541.4. The next area of resistance is around 550.0 and 551.4, while 1st support hits today at 545.0 and below there at 541.4.
To those of you who have emailed or commented on the daily commentary regarding price manipulation: our daily comments are strictly to provide our customers and subscribers with news, which may influence the markets marginally on a day-to-day basis. This is not the forum to address price manipulation.
There are multitudes of ways in which one can participate in a bullish or bearish perspective in the metals complex. Mining shares as well as purchasing bullion are just a few. Another investment of choice is through futures and/ or options on futures contracts. If you have traded, then you will be able to appreciate the brokerage service that Nell Sloane and Group can offer. If you have not, and wish to learn more about it, please feel free to contact her staff so that they can forward you some educational literature for your review. Please contact Nell Sloane or a member of her team at 800 238 2610.
-- Posted Tuesday, 14 March 2006 | Digg This Article
***This report includes information from sources believed to be reliable and accurate as of the date of this publication, but no independent verification has been made and we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This report should not be construed as a request to engage in any transaction involving the purchase or sale of a futures contract and/or commodity option thereon. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts or commodity options can be substantial, and investors should carefully consider the inherent risks of such an investment in light of their financial condition. Any reproduction or retransmission of this report without the express written consent of Hartfield Management, Inc. is strictly prohibited.
Previous Articles by Nell Sloane
|
