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-- Posted Wednesday, 15 March 2006 | Digg This Article
METALS: OVERNIGHT CHANGES THROUGH 4:00 AM: GOLD -1.00, SILVER -0.50
London Gold Fix $551.25 +$6.00 LME COPPER STKS 134,725 ml tns +750 tns
COMEX GOLD stks 7.527 ml oz -4,970 oz COMEX SILVER stks 126.0 ml oz -602,444 oz OVERNIGHT ACTION: Chinese gold sharply higher mostly in a catch-up move to Tuesday's action. Japanese gold was up but to a lesser magnitude than Chinese gold. GOLD: The action of the last two sessions certainly serves to countervail the bearish track of the last two weeks. With oil prices seemingly rising in sync with the precious metals markets we are inclined to look to energy prices this morning for near term direction in the precious metals. Given that oil prices are down early today and could be given added pressure in the wake of weekly oil inventory data later this morning, we suspect that gold might come under some light profit taking pressure today. However, the gold market should have been cheered yesterday by the hope that the US Federal reserve will only be hiking rates 1 or 2 more times. Seeing a less aggressive Fed could allow for more growth/physical demand and could also allow inflation to rear its head. With the Dollar also under pressure as a result of the less hawkish Fed perspective, the precious metals have had their position improve from a number of fundamental angles. We suspect that solid chart support in April gold has moved from $540 to $550, but thick resistance remains a force up at $560. News that China was looking to cap Iron Ore prices might be a limiting force for gold temporarily, as an effort to stop commodity price gains by one of the world's largest commodity consumers should be considered a significant development. It is our opinion that global market forces will quickly show China, that commodity prices will seek their own levels despite attempts to control them. However, traders should be slightly defensive this morning but we suspect that April will respect support of $547.8. SILVER: The silver market continues to grind back toward its old highs of $10.33 but given the violent action of the last two weeks, traders should continue to expect violent back and forth price action. Therefore, we are not sure if close-in support of $10.235 will be able to hold unless the market manages to get a bullish lift this morning from the US numbers and or the US oil inventory data. On the other hand, silver remains in a unique position to benefit from a sagging Dollar, positive equity market action and rising energy prices. In other words, silver is both a physical and financial commodity and it would seem like both conditions are providing buying interest. The trend is up but one should not be surprised to see $.30 daily trading ranges ahead. METALS TECHNICAL OUTLOOK 3/15/2006 COMEX SILVER (MAY) 03/15/2006: The daily stochastics gave a bullish indicator with a crossover up. Daily stochastics have risen into overbought territory which will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The market's close above the 9-day moving average suggests the short-term trend remains positive. The market has a slightly positive tilt with the close over the swing pivot. The next upside objective is 1037.6. The next area of resistance is around 1032.8 and 1037.6, while 1st support hits today at 1016.3 and below there at 1004.7. COMEX GOLD (APR) 03/15/2006: The cross over and close above the 60-day moving average indicates the longer-term trend has turned up. The downside crossover (9 below 18) of the moving averages suggests a developing short-term downtrend. Negative momentum studies in the neutral zone will tend to reinforce lower price action. A negative signal for trend short-term was given on a close under the 9-bar moving average. The market's close above the 2nd swing resistance number is a bullish indication. The next downside objective is 541.7. The next area of resistance is around 557.6 and 560.2, while 1st support hits today at 548.4 and below there at 541.7.
To those of you who have emailed or commented on the daily commentary regarding price manipulation: our daily comments are strictly to provide our customers and subscribers with news, which may influence the markets marginally on a day-to-day basis. This is not the forum to address price manipulation.
There are multitudes of ways in which one can participate in a bullish or bearish perspective in the metals complex. Mining shares as well as purchasing bullion are just a few. Another investment of choice is through futures and/ or options on futures contracts. If you have traded, then you will be able to appreciate the brokerage service that Nell Sloane and Group can offer. If you have not, and wish to learn more about it, please feel free to contact her staff so that they can forward you some educational literature for your review. Please contact Nell Sloane or a member of her team at 800 238 2610.
-- Posted Wednesday, 15 March 2006 | Digg This Article
***This report includes information from sources believed to be reliable and accurate as of the date of this publication, but no independent verification has been made and we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This report should not be construed as a request to engage in any transaction involving the purchase or sale of a futures contract and/or commodity option thereon. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts or commodity options can be substantial, and investors should carefully consider the inherent risks of such an investment in light of their financial condition. Any reproduction or retransmission of this report without the express written consent of Hartfield Management, Inc. is strictly prohibited.
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