|
-- Posted Tuesday, 21 March 2006 | Digg This Article
METALS: OVERNIGHT CHANGES THROUGH 4:00 AM: GOLD -1.50, SILVER -4.70
London Gold Fix $553.00 -$1.25 LME COPPER STKS 130,300 ml tns -750 tns
COMEX GOLD stks 7.526 ml oz +1,157 oz COMEX SILVER stks 125.8 ml oz +1,081 oz OVERNIGHT ACTION: Chinese profit-taking overnight extends Monday's bearishness but there was a holiday in Japan today and that might be giving the Chinese impact more prominence. GOLD: While it would seem like the Chinese declines overnight were simply an extension of the weakness seen on Monday, we are a little surprised that comments from the Bundesbank didn't prompt some short covering. Apparently the German Central Bank indicated that they did not plan to sell any gold in 2006 and at the same time offered that gold remained "an essential Part of reserves". Countervailing part of the bullish fundamentals from the Bundesbank, is the news that Chinese gold production rose in January rose by 6.9% to stand at 15.79 tons. We do think that renewed strength in the US Dollar over the last 36 hours has served to undermine gold slightly and with gold and silver generally coming in weaker than platinum and copper, it is clear that the financial element is undermining the precious metals. However, even with gold and silver partially vulnerable to selling, we don't get the sense that the market is going to see a repeat of the early February and March corrections. In fact, we suspect that April gold will find close-in support around the $550 level. On the other hand, the market might not be able to weave its way beyond the PPI report this morning without some sort of selling bout. In the event that PPI is hotter than expected, that could give the Dollar a significant additional boost and that could apply indirect pressure to gold. If the US PPI is ultra soft this morning, that could also pressure gold from the perspective that inflation remains under control. In conclusion, the bear camp seems to have a slight edge in the early action today. SILVER: While the May silver has respected a quasi double bottom at $10.25 this week, it would seem like financial themes continue to undermine sentiment. Certainly the inflation or flight to quality theme has been mitigated with the recent slide in oil prices and with the Dollar also showing signs of strength, the silver market is seeing an indirect undermine from the Gold market. With the physical demand outlook managing to lift copper and platinum periodically, and the silver market apparently missing out on that benefit, it is clear that the bull camp is at least partially back on its heels. While we don't see an aggressive washout in prices ahead, we suspect that the bear camp will retain a minor edge in the coming session. Bottom of the up trend channel comes in all the way down at $10.05 but closer-in support could easily hold up at $10.35. While the talk of ETF's is certainly helpful, this market really needs a much stronger US and global economic view, or a rekindled inflation fear to restart the bull trend. METALS TECHNICAL OUTLOOK 3/21/2006 COMEX SILVER (MAY) 03/21/2006: Rising stochastics at overbought levels warrant some caution for bulls. A positive signal for trend short-term was given on a close over the 9-bar moving average. It is a slightly negative indicator that the close was under the swing pivot. The next upside target is 1048.0. The next area of resistance is around 1042.9 and 1048.0, while 1st support hits today at 1029.5 and below there at 1021.0. COMEX GOLD (APR) 03/21/2006: Stochastics are at mid-range but trending higher, which should reinforce a move higher if resistance levels are taken out. The market now above the 18-day moving average suggests the intermediate-term trend has turned up. The daily closing price reversal up is a positive indicator that could support higher prices. It is a mildly bullish indicator that the market closed over the pivot swing number. The near-term upside objective is at 561.5. The next area of resistance is around 559.4 and 561.5, while 1st support hits today at 552.8 and below there at 548.4.
To those of you who have emailed or commented on the daily commentary regarding price manipulation: our daily comments are strictly to provide our customers and subscribers with news, which may influence the markets marginally on a day-to-day basis. This is not the forum to address price manipulation.
There are multitudes of ways in which one can participate in a bullish or bearish perspective in the metals complex. Mining shares as well as purchasing bullion are just a few. Another investment of choice is through futures and/ or options on futures contracts. If you have traded, then you will be able to appreciate the brokerage service that Nell Sloane and Group can offer. If you have not, and wish to learn more about it, please feel free to contact her staff so that they can forward you some educational literature for your review. Please contact Nell Sloane or a member of her team at 800 238 2610.
-- Posted Tuesday, 21 March 2006 | Digg This Article
***This report includes information from sources believed to be reliable and accurate as of the date of this publication, but no independent verification has been made and we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This report should not be construed as a request to engage in any transaction involving the purchase or sale of a futures contract and/or commodity option thereon. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts or commodity options can be substantial, and investors should carefully consider the inherent risks of such an investment in light of their financial condition. Any reproduction or retransmission of this report without the express written consent of Hartfield Management, Inc. is strictly prohibited.
Previous Articles by Nell Sloane
|
